TABLE 1 – Conventional Oil Endowment, 2002 Base Case Scenario

Excludes: oil from coal and “shale”, bitumen, Extra-Heavy Oil (<10o API), Heavy Oil (10-17.5o API), Deepwater Oil (>500m) and Polar Oil, but includes Natural Gas Liquids from Associated Gas in oilfields.

Units: Gb = billion barrels, Mb = million barrels, kb = thousand barrels,

Reference date : as indicated

Regions

Middle East Gulf : Abu Dhabi, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Neutral Zone abd Saudi Arabia

Eurasia: former communist bloc of former Soviet Union, China and East Europe

North America : USA and Canada

Latin America : Mexico, South American and Caribbean

Africa

Europe: Norway, United Kingdom, Denmark, Germany, Austria, France, Netherlands and Italy

Far East: Pakistan, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Australia, Papua, Vietnam

Middle East-Other: Bahrain, Qatar, Dubai, Sharjah, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Syria

Other: Other countries with less than 500 Mb, or not in production

Unforeseen:  balancing item to deliver a rounded total

Column A: Rank of 63 countries and ten regions by total endowment of conventional oil. Other countries are combined in the Other Region.

Column B: Country and Region

Column C: Production in 2001 as reported by the Oil & Gas Journal in kb/d

Column D: Equivalent production in 2001 in Gb/a

Column E: Past production (Cumulative Production)

Column F: Five year trend in production by percentage change

Column G: Proved Reserves as reported by the Oil & Gas Journal (estimated as of end 2001& reproduced in BP Statistical Review) 

Column H: Proved Reserves as reported by World Oil (as of August 2001)

Column I: Adjustment to remove any identified Non-Conventional oil and the total production for any period of unchanged reports

Column J: Percentage reported [(G-I) / K]

Column K: Future production to 2075 (Proved & Probable Reserves)

Column L: Total Past and Future Production from known fields (Total Discovered)  [E+K]

Column M: Future production from new, yet to be discovered fields (Yet-to-Find)

Column N: Total future production from known and new fields [K+M]

Column O: Total production to 2075 (Ultimate) [L+M]

Column P: Percentage discovered [L/O]

Column Q: Depletion Rate [D/N]

Column R: Date of peak discovery

Column S: Date of depletion midpoint [O/2]

Column T: Date of peak production


Table 2 – Further parameters

Column A: Country and Region

Column B: Percentage discovered in giant fields (>500 Mb)

Column C: Number of years between peak discovery and peak production

Column D: Number of years of unchanged reported reserves

Column E: Percentage of peak production to total (Ultimate)

Column F: Number of reported producing wells

Column G: Production per producing well

Column H: Reported Proved and Probable Reserves per producing well

Column I: Number of wildcats (exploration boreholes) drilled to-date

Column J: Date of peak wildcat drilling

Column K: Estimated number of wildcats to be drilled in the future (normally based on current trend)

Column L: Average past discovery per wildcats

Column M: Average discovery per wildcat over past five years

Column N: Estimated future average discovery per wildcat

Column O: Assessed gas reserves

Column P: Assessed yield of Natural Gas Liquids


Table 3 – Resource-based Production Forecast

Base-Case Scenario assumes flat average demand for Conventional oil to 2010 due to alternating price shocks and consequential recessions, followed by onset of terminal decline at the then depletion rate

Conventional Oil by Country: For 2000, 2005, 2010, 2020, 2050, as modelled by individual country

Conventional Oil by Region: Compiled from individual countries. Swing countries =  Abu Dhabi, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Neutral Zone & Saudi Arabia

Non-Conventional Hydrocarbons: As indicated

All Hydrocarbons: As indicated

Balance: Between supply and demand with notional 1.5% annual increase in demand

 

NOTE: The information in the tables is of variable accuracy due to the unreliable input data and is subject to progressive correction and refinement as new information and insight comes in.  It is however thought to give a valid general picture in terms of order of magnitude.