TABLE 1 – Conventional Oil Endowment, 2002
Base Case Scenario
Excludes: oil from coal and “shale”, bitumen,
Extra-Heavy Oil (<10o API), Heavy Oil (10-17.5o API),
Deepwater Oil (>500m) and Polar Oil, but includes Natural Gas Liquids from
Associated Gas in oilfields.
Units: Gb = billion barrels, Mb = million barrels, kb =
thousand barrels,
Reference date : as indicated
Regions
Middle East Gulf : Abu Dhabi, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait,
Neutral Zone abd Saudi Arabia
Eurasia: former communist bloc of former Soviet Union, China
and East Europe
North America : USA and Canada
Latin America : Mexico, South American and
Caribbean
Africa
Europe: Norway, United Kingdom, Denmark, Germany, Austria,
France, Netherlands and Italy
Far East: Pakistan, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand,
Australia, Papua, Vietnam
Middle East-Other: Bahrain, Qatar, Dubai, Sharjah,
Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Syria
Other: Other countries with less than 500 Mb, or not in
production
Unforeseen: balancing
item to deliver a rounded total
Column A: Rank of 63 countries and ten regions by total
endowment of conventional oil. Other countries are combined in the Other Region.
Column B: Country and Region
Column C: Production in 2001 as reported by the Oil & Gas
Journal in kb/d
Column D: Equivalent production in 2001 in Gb/a
Column E: Past production (Cumulative
Production)
Column F: Five year trend in production by percentage change
Column G: Proved
Reserves as reported by the Oil & Gas Journal (estimated
as of end 2001& reproduced in BP Statistical Review)
Column H: Proved
Reserves as reported by World Oil (as of August 2001)
Column I: Adjustment to remove any identified Non-Conventional
oil and the total production for any period of unchanged reports
Column J: Percentage reported [(G-I) / K]
Column K: Future production to 2075 (Proved & Probable Reserves)
Column L: Total Past and Future Production from known fields (Total
Discovered) [E+K]
Column M: Future production from new, yet to be discovered
fields (Yet-to-Find)
Column N: Total future production from known and new fields [K+M]
Column O: Total production to 2075 (Ultimate) [L+M]
Column P: Percentage discovered [L/O]
Column Q: Depletion Rate [D/N]
Column R: Date of peak discovery
Column S: Date of depletion midpoint [O/2]
Column T: Date of peak production
Table 2 – Further parameters
Column A: Country and Region
Column B: Percentage discovered in giant fields (>500 Mb)
Column C: Number of years between peak discovery and peak
production
Column D: Number of years of unchanged reported reserves
Column E: Percentage of peak production to total (Ultimate)
Column F: Number of reported producing wells
Column G: Production per producing well
Column H: Reported Proved
and Probable Reserves per producing well
Column I: Number of wildcats
(exploration boreholes) drilled to-date
Column J: Date of peak wildcat
drilling
Column K: Estimated number of wildcats to be drilled in the future (normally based on current
trend)
Column L: Average past discovery per wildcats
Column M: Average discovery per wildcat over past five years
Column N: Estimated future average discovery per wildcat
Column O: Assessed gas reserves
Column P: Assessed yield of Natural Gas Liquids
Table 3 – Resource-based Production Forecast
Base-Case Scenario assumes flat average demand for
Conventional oil to 2010 due to alternating price shocks and consequential
recessions, followed by onset of terminal decline at the then depletion rate
Conventional Oil by Country: For 2000, 2005, 2010, 2020,
2050, as modelled by individual country
Conventional Oil by Region: Compiled from individual
countries. Swing countries = Abu
Dhabi, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Neutral Zone & Saudi Arabia
Non-Conventional Hydrocarbons: As
indicated
All Hydrocarbons: As indicated
Balance: Between supply and demand with notional 1.5% annual
increase in demand
NOTE: The information in the tables is of variable accuracy due to the
unreliable input data and is subject to progressive correction and refinement as
new information and insight comes in. It
is however thought to give a valid general picture in terms of order of
magnitude.