The following table plots the essential statistics of successive assessments of conventional oil
They are not however strictly comparable because:
It has been stressed that all numbers, which are quoted as computed, are to be generously rounded. No one should imagine that this is an exact science.
CONVENTIONAL OIL | 1989 | 1990 | 1992 | 1993 | 1995 | 1996 | 1996 | 1997 | 1997 | 1997 | 1998 | 1998 | 1999 |
References | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | #8 | #9 | #9 | #10 | #11 | #12 |
Produced (billion barrels) | 600 | 628 | 697 | 718 | 761 | 784 | 800 | 807 | 785 | 784 | 815 | 817 | 820 |
Reserves (") | 725 | 806 | 725 | 722 | 800 | 836 | 850 | 830 | 823 | 836 | 810 | 821 | 827 |
Discovered (") | 1325 | 1434 | 1422 | 1440 | 1561 | 1620 | 1650 | 1637 | 1618 | 1620 | 1625 | 1638 | 1647 |
Yet-to-Find (") | 250 | 216 | 228 | 210 | 189 | 180 | 150 | 165 | 182 | 180 | 175 | 162 | 153 |
Yet-to-Produce (") | 975 | 1022 | 953 | 932 | 989 | 1016 | 1000 | 995 | 1005 | 1016 | 985 | 983 | 980 |
Ultimate (") | 1575 | 1650 | 1650 | 1650 | 1750 | 1800 | 1800 | 1800 | 1800 | 1800 | 1800 | 1800 | 1800 |
Depletion Rate (annual) | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | ||||
Depletion Midpoint (year) | 1998 | 1998 | 1998 | 2000 | 2001 | 2001 | 2001 | 2003 |
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Produced + Reserves = Discovered |
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Reserves + Yet-to-Find = Yet-to-Produce |
Produced + Yet-to-Produce = Ultimate |
Click here to see a plot of all variables |
References |
|
#1 | Noroil, v.17/12 Dec 1989 |
#2 | Golden Century of Oil |
#3 | Petrole et Technique, Oct 1993 |
#4 | Energy Exploration & Exploitation, 13/1. 1995 |
#5 | Oxford Energy Forum, v28 1997 |
#6 | Oil & Gas Journal, April 7th 1997 |
#7 | Scientific American v 278/3. 1998 |
#8 | The National Interest, Spring 1998 |
#9 | World's Non-conventional Oil & Gas, Pet. Economist |
#10 | Petroleum Expl. Soc. of Gt. Britain |
#11 | Geopolics of Energy, Jan. 1999 |
#12 | Tomorrow's Oil, v 2/2 Feb.2000 |
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