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Updating the Depletion Model
Work proceeds in updating the depletion model. It is less
than an exact science to try to spot the anomalies in the data
and to formulate realistic forecasts. It is an ongoing process,
with the current status being reported. The present model
departs from earlier ones in recognition that the Middle East no
longer has sufficient spare capacity to discharge a swing role.
A volatile epoch of recurring price shocks and consequential
recessions dampening demand and price is now regarded as more
likely, with terminal decline setting in and becoming
self-evident by about 2010. The flat-earth detractors will
relish pointing out that the estimates change, but others may
take it as progress.
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![](GrowingGap.jpg)
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