British Energy's 2020 vision

Apr 26, 2005 - Daily Telegraph London
Author(s): Edited By Philip Aldrick

 

TO be nuclear or to pollute the atmosphere, that is the question for Britain's energy industry. It's a problem equal to anything the troubled Danish prince faced, which might explain why Prime Minister Tony Blair is said to want a national debate on the issue - beginning this summer. Labour wants to cut CO2 emissions by 20pc by 2020 but there simply isn't the capacity in renewables to keep the nation's nightlights twinkling. Nuclear, for all its environmental complications, is the best option. And, in Britain, British Energy is the nuclear industry.

 

But carbon emissions are only the start of the problem. Five of the company's eight plants are due to be decommissioned by 2014, removing over 10pc of the country's total power generation. Little wonder, then, that both the Tories and senior Government advisers are itchy for new ones.

 

British Energy looks set to be stuck right at the centre of a fierce debate after May 5.

 

The company only returned to the stock market in January after its rescue restructuring. Shareholders took a bath last time, when creditors seized 97.5pc of the equity after electricity prices fell to pounds 15 a megawatt hour, but memories seem to be short. The shares have risen from 286p to 325p, valuing it at 12 times 2005 earnings on Deutsche's bullish forecasts, with no dividend before 2008.

 

Bears cite the company's dying assets (although the plants are likely to get five year life extensions), and high costs (it needs electricity prices to stay above pounds 20).

 

So what's the pull? In the short term: high energy prices (currently around pounds 35) and productivity improvements from a pounds 500m investment programme. Long term, though, British Energy will be critical to providing the Government security of power supply and lower carbon emissions. And nimbyism will ensure new plants are built on the company's existing sites.

 

Political companies are always risky bets, but there will have to be support for this one. Those with the stomach for a long, bumpy ride may want to get on now.

 

 


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