Q: The Chairman and CEO of Exxon Mobil Corporation, said that by 2030,
"the combination of economic growth and population increases can be
expected to lead to a rise in primary energy demand of about 50 percent
worldwide." Renewables, he says, will find it hard to keep up with the
rise, and still only contribute a similar percentage to now - unless investment
is massively increased. A recent report on nuclear power calculated that to
increase nuclear's current 17 percent share of world electricity to just 19
percent by 2050 would require three times more capacity -- 1,000-1,500 more
plants worldwide. What's your reaction to his assertion?
-- David T, Machynlleth, United Kingdom
A: When I worked as a Senate aide in the 1970's during two major oil
embargoes, the energy industries stated that the United States would have 50
percent more energy in the year 2000 than we use today. Two years ago, the
National Energy Plan released by the Bush Administration stated the USA would
need 1300 new electric power plants alone. So the MIT nuclear study and the
Exxon projections are not surprising that these interest groups should
articulate a "business as usual" growth plan. But reality never meets
these outlandish generalizations. The meat is in the assumptions and they fail
to recognize many things, the most obvious being energy efficiency. With
innovations in lighting that can generate the same lumens for a small percentage
of the energy we use for this purpose today, and actual market growth of
advanced water heating technologies from solar thermal, ground-coupled heat
pumps and cogeneration which obviates the need for electric power at all, and
amazing advances in space cooling and heating -- all will dramatically cut
energy demand even as the global population gets hooked up at a brisk rate. I
never bought "the sky is falling" mentality for energy demand, and
neither does the investment community that would have to actually make a profit
from these supposed thousands of new electric generation plants.
A few recent good energy reports on global energy demand:
More demand could be met through renewables, while preventing the need for 300
power plants and GHG emissions equivalent to 80 million vehicles according to
the U.S. EPA.
http://www.sparksdata.co.uk/refocus/fp_showdoc.asp?docid=87478274&accnum=1&topics=
The Renewable Energy Transition: Can It Really Happen?, by Donald W. Aitken -
Solar Today, January-February 2005
http://www.solarcatalyst.com/solarcircle/Aitken-SolarToday.pdf
The climate stabilization challenge: Can renewable energy sources meet the
target? by Donald W. Aitken, Lynn L. Billman and Stanley R. Bull - Renewable
Energy World, November-December 2004
http://www.eere.energy.gov/femp/technologies/renewable_workinggroup.cfm
Scott Sklar is President of The Stella Group in Washington, D.C., a distributed energy marketing and policy firm. Scott, co-author of "A Consumer Guide to Solar Energy", uses solar technologies for heating and power at his home in Virginia.
Have a question? Please contact Scott regarding new products, technologies or experiences for future Q&A columns.
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