April 11, 2005 |
"These examples show that our society does not know what alternative
or alternatives to oil are ready for the truly massive investment and retooling
that will be required for providing them to consumers in quantity. "
- Tom Mast, RE Insider
What are the alternatives to oil, primarily for transportation? We don't
really know, and that is the real issue. We have procrastinated until the
eleventh hour. Oil is the most important source of energy, providing 38.7
percent of the world's needs. Over 97 percent of U.S. transportation fuel comes
from oil; replacing this amount of energy is a gigantic task. Alarmingly, we
have not even settled on the technologies for oil alternatives. These new
alternatives-and surely there will be more than one-are far from obvious today.
Huge technical and social implications are attached to all of the proposed
options. They need accelerated research and development.
Aren't we doing R&D on alternatives now? Yes, but we are not getting results
fast enough. Hydrogen, for example, is often touted as our savior. However,
hydrogen poses some huge hurdles. It can be made from natural gas, but this
source is also a hydrocarbon that is in limited supply and produces carbon
dioxide. It can be extracted from water by electrolysis, but this process is
very energy intensive. Where do we get the energy for electrolysis? Let's say we
somehow do produce the hydrogen. Then it has to be compressed as a gas to very
high pressures and carried in a strong tank or liquefied to below -400? F and
carried in a well-insulated tank. Both processes are energy intensive and
perhaps dangerous. Do we use fuel cells? If so, they need a lot of work to be
competitive in price with engines. How long would it take and how much would it
cost to build the automotive and refueling infrastructures if we were to decide
that hydrogen is ready for the big time?
Ethanol production is subsidized. Some say that it takes more energy to produce
it than it provides.
Solar and wind energy have promise, but they are in their infancy in the U.S.
They don't seem to have potential for direct application in transportation, so
if we are to use them to power cars, we will need batteries. Despite years of
research, batteries still don't provide the vehicle range people demand. If
research could produce results, battery-powered vehicles would have the very big
advantage of being recharged with electricity that could be made from any energy
source, providing the portability now provided only by oil-based fuels. If we
had the right battery, what source of energy would we use to provide the huge
increase in electrical generation needed? Can we tame nuclear energy so we feel
safe with it?
These examples show that our society does not know what alternative or
alternatives to oil are ready for the truly massive investment and retooling
that will be required for providing them to consumers in quantity. We need to
galvanize research to answer these questions and then develop the chosen
solutions for the marketplace. We should have a panel of scientists and
engineers providing an evolving technical roadmap showing the risks and rewards
of all energy alternatives so resources can be directed efficiently by
policymakers. And, we should be forcing fuel conservation in order to extend the
time we have to identify and implement oil's replacement.
Technologies are more mature and useable for fuel conservation. For example, we
could convert to hybrid automobiles that get almost double the fuel mileage of
our current population of automobiles. Even better, plug-in hybrids are a
logical extension of hybrid technology and are being developed. Plug-in hybrids
have a battery that can be plugged into an electrical outlet at home to provide
sufficient charge to travel fifty or sixty miles. Since the average car is
driven about half this distance daily, a large percentage of vehicle travel can
be undertaken using no oil-based fuels. An on-board engine provides instant
switching to fuel to make a trip longer than sixty miles. Again, the electrical
energy can come from any source including nuclear, hydroelectric, solar, and
wind. Solar or wind energy generated at the home, in addition to being
renewable, would avoid the distribution loses between power plants and homes.
About the author...
Tom Mast is the author of Over a Barrel: A Simple Guide to the Oil Shortage
(March 2005). He received his Bachelor of Science degree in 1960 in Mechanical
Engineering from the University of Texas at Austin. His career began as a Navy
Civil Engineer Corps officer in the Philadelphia Naval Shipyard's power
generation department and in Spain. After finishing his naval service, he
graduated from the Harvard Business School to add a business perspective to his
engineering background. His subsequent career was in the management of
manufacturing operations and engineering. He held management and executive
positions in an oil tool and forging company, an integrated manufacturer of
fabricated and machined equipment, and a personal computer corporation. He also
founded a modular home company making energy-efficient starter homes. His career
has offered Mast an opportunity to better grasp the technical data and
information that surrounds energy, oil, and the energy alternatives. He and his
wife live in Austin, Texas. For more information, see the following link.
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