2004: ANOTHER WARM YEAR
Fourth warmest year globally - fifth warmest for England
Figures compiled by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia (UEA) for
the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reveal that 2004 has been the fourth
warmest year globally since records began in 1861.
Global mean surface temperature over land and sea was 0.44 °C above the
1961-1990 average; for land areas alone, it was even warmer at 0.67 °C above the
average. The last ten years has seen 9 of the 10 warmest years on record with
only 1996 not making the top ten.
Phil Jones of the Climate Research Unit at the UEA said, "That 9 of the 10
warmest years on record have occurred in the last decade is truly remarkable."
Met Office climate scientist David Parker added, "Average global temperature
has risen by around 0.7 °C since the end of the 19th century and it is very
likely that the warming over the past 50 years is mainly due to human
activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels."
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Closer to home, this year is ranked the fifth warmest in the Central England
Temperature series which dates back to 1659, with a temperature 1.08 °C warmer
than average so far. The warmer years were 1949, 1990, 1999 and 2002, which all
recorded temperatures between 1.1 °C and 1.2 °C above the long-term average.
The Met Office has developed a computer model to predict annual global
temperature and its forecast for 2004 was within the expected range. The
prediction for 2005 is within the range 0.39 °C to 0.63 °C with a best estimate
of 0.51 °C, which would make it the 2nd warmest on record.
ENDS
Notes to editors:
- Graphs representing global, northern Hemisphere and southern hemisphere
temperatures are available on request.
- These global statistics are compiled using data from land and sea, which
have been analysed by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia. With
part of December 2004 remaining, all figures contained in the news release are
provisional. However, the global temperature ranking relative to other years
is unlikely to change.
- The period over which averages have been calculated is 1961-90.
For further information
Met Office Press Office 01392 886655
University of East Anglia Press Office contact 01603 592203
Phil Jones (Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia): 01603 592090