ASIA - Developing Countries to Dominate Growth in World Energy Consumption

Worldwide energy consumption is projected to grow by 57% between 2002 and 2025, according to the International Energy Outlook 2005, released in July 2005 by the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA). The report shows strongest growth in energy consumption among the emerging economies of the world, especially in Asia (including China and India), where robust economic growth drives the increase in energy use over the projection period. Energy use among emerging economies more than doubles over the forecast period.

In contrast to the emerging economies of the world, slower growth in energy demand is projected for the United States and the other mature market economies, which are projected to experience a combined 27% increase in energy use between 2002 and 2025. Energy use in the transitional economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are expected to grow by 45% over the forecast period.

The report found that natural gas is the fastest-growing component of world primary energy. Over the 2002 to 2025 forecast horizon, consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by 69% to 156 trillion cubic feet. Higher fossil-fuel prices and the Kyoto Protocol are expected to improve prospects for new nuclear-power capacity, which had been expected to decline at the end of the forecast period in the EIA's 2004 report. The strongest growth in nuclear generation is projected in the countries of emerging Asia, where nuclear power generation triples between 2002 and 2025.

Carbon-dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 24.4 billion metric tons in 2002 to 30.2 billion metric tons in 2010 and 38.8 billion metric tons in 2025. Much of the projected increase in emissions is expected to occur among the emerging economies, accompanying significant increases in fossil fuel use. The emerging economies account for 68% of the projected increase in carbon-dioxide emissions between 2002 and 2025.

(Source: U.S. EIA news release, 7/29/05)