INDONESIA, which suffered one of the world's worst power failures last

week with 100 million people affected, is expected to face more blackouts

as the country's aging power plants lag soaring demand.

"The disruption is here to stay because there are no new power plants

scheduled to come onstream until next year," said Edwin Syahruzad, an

analyst with DanaReksa Securities.

Equally pressing, with 30 per cent of the country's power plants run by

oil, the state power utility, PLN, is expected to face difficulties

securing adequate supply as global oil prices hit an all-time high of

US$67 (RM253) per barrel at a time when the rupiah is at its lowest

level.

The rupiah fell to 10,000 rupiah to a US dollar last week, its lowest

level in 41 months, on concerns of high global oil prices and its impact

on the economy.

PLN cannot pay oil suppliers. Meeting the fuel oil needs of PLN also

poses a dilemma for the Government, which is struggling to pay for fuel

subsidies, leading to shortages across the country.

"If there is no oil, we will not be able to fulfil the electricity

needs," said Muljo Adji, a PLN general manager.

Some 30 per cent of PLN plants are run by oil products such as diesel,

40 per cent coal, 19 per cent natural gas, five per cent geothermal

energy and six per cent hydropower.

"The cost of one third of plants (running on fuel) account for two-

thirds of the total costs of PLN," said economist Raden Pardede.

Asked whether there was a possibility fuel-run plants may face

shutdown, Pardede said: "There's a possibility in order to reduce the

pressure of costs".

Indonesia's energy crisis is a legacy of the 1997 Asian financial

crisis, which left it with little funds to maintain and build new power

plants.

By the rule of thumb, supply should be 30 per cent more than demand to

ensure adequate reserves during peak hours and power failures.

The country's largest grid, the Java-Bali grid, which supplies 80 per

cent of the country's needs, has a total capacity of 19,615MW. But with

consumption hovering at 15,240MW during peak hours, reserves are at a

critical level.