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SACRAMENTO, California, US, August 10, 2005
(Refocus Weekly)
A 20% target in California’s Renewable Portfolio
Standard will require 28,969 GWh of new green power to be added each
year, of which 85% can be met by local resources that require little
increase in new transmission lines.
A report for the California Energy Commission examines the
strategic siting of new renewable energy facilities near
transmission ‘hot spots’ or congestion zones, which will improve
transmission reliability while meeting the target penetration levels
for renewables. The report, ‘Strategic Value Analysis for
Integrating Renewable Technologies in Meeting Target Renewable
Penetration In Support of the 2005 Integrated Energy Policy Report,’
was prepared by Davis Power Consultants, PowerWorld and Anthony
Engineering, and overlays renewable energy resource locations to
find locations where green power technologies would provide a
benefit to the system by reducing transmission overloads.
The state RPS requires generation capacity for base, intermediate
and peaking facilities, and the results indicate that “in-state
renewable resources that require little increase in new transmission
lines can provide approximately 85% (24,575,216 MWh) of the
electricity needs required by the RPS target, based on the SVA
approach.” The remaining 15% of the required electricity can be
developed from out-of-state renewable resources and/or from in-state
renewable resources that will need new transmission capacity.
The average capacity factor of new renewable generation is 46.5%,
ranging from 90% for geothermal and biomass, 37% for high wind, 27%
for concentrating solar and 20% for residential solar. Two years
(2010 and 2017) were selected for analyses to describe how green
power sites can be selected to meet the 20% RPS, and the economic
feasibility of renewables was evaluated by comparing its levelized
cost of electricity generation values against Market Price Referents
values that currently are used in the RPS procurement bid process
for 2010.
By 2010, high wind will be the largest new green power source at
40%, generating 9,856,489 MWh, with geothermal at 39% with 9,571,176
MWh, concentrating solar at 10% with 2,473,999 MWh, biomass at 7%
with 1,797,552 and residential solar at 4% of the mix with 876,000
MWh. The shortfall of 4,393,784 MWh from renewables, as required by
the RPS, would need to be imported.
The wind resources will comprise 51% of the capacity added by 2010,
while geothermal resources are 20% and the remaining 29% will come
from the remaining green power resources.
After installing 5,949 MW of renewables by 2010, the analysis shows
that three transmission lines will be overloaded and, after
upgrading, the state could strategically add another 5,949 MW of new
renewable technology that improved transmission system reliability.
By 2017, a number of grid overloads were “substantially reduced”
with the addition of more distributed generation renewables.
The incremental need for renewables between 2010 and 2017 to meet
the RPS will be 9,346,784 MWh, including the shortfall in 2010, and
the average capacity factor is expected to increase to 48.7%. The
largest addition would be 442 MW of geothermal that will provide
3,484,700 MWh, biomass would add 452 MW and output of 2,522,880 MWh,
wind would add 422 MW with 1,239,540 MWh, CSP would add 101 MW and
238,885 MWh while residential solar would add 500 MW and 876,000 MWh
of output.
“By the end of 2017, the total 20% penetration was projected to be
33,922 GWh,” the report notes. “Renewable development approaches
under the SVA indicate this target can be achieved by 2017.”
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