Early report suggests chance of colder winter for UK

London (Platts)--22Aug2005

An early weather report forecasting weather effects this winter suggests that 
the UK could see temperatures "amongst the coldest third of winters over the 
last fifty years of the 20th Century." The Met Office, which produced the 
"North Atlantic Oscillation Report" said that the North Atlantic Oscillation, 
the effect on which it bases its temperature analysis, is predicted correctly 
two times out of three.
     The North Atlantic Oscillation is a phenomenon associated with winter 
fluctuations in temperatures over much of Europe. When the NAO is positive, 
westerly winds are stronger, northern Europe tends to be warmer than average 
and southern Europe colder than average. When the NAO is negative, westerly 
winds are weaker, northern Europe is colder and southern Europe warmer than 
average. The Met Office believes the NAO this winter will be negative.
     That suggests the UK could see colder than average temperatures this 
winter, which would have an impact on gas and electricity consumption and 
prices. Prices have already soared in advance of the upcoming winter in 
anticipation of tight supplies on the back of declining North Sea production. 
A map on the Met Office website also shows much of northern France, Belgium, 
the Netherlands and Denmark being potentially affected by colder than average 
temperatures.

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