Global energy demand to grow by 57% in 2002-2025 period: US EIA

Global energy demand to grow by 57% in 2002-2025 period: US EIA

Washington (Platts)--29Jul2005

The US Energy Information Administration expects global energy consumption to
grow by 57% between 2002 and 2025, with the strongest growth coming in what it
termed "emerging Asia," it said Friday in its International Energy Outlook
2005. The EIA said growth in demand in that region, including China and India,
would be propelled by robust economic growth. 

Energy consumption in the world's emerging economies is expected to more than
double over the period under review, it said. The US and the other mature
market economies are expected to see a combined 27% increase in energy use
between 2002 and 2025, it forecast. Meanwhile, energy use in the "transitional
economies" of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union is expected to grow
by 45% in the period. The EIA said slow or declining population growth in this
region, combined with strong projected gains in energy efficiency as old,
inefficient equipment is replaced, would lead to more modest growth in energy
demand than in the emerging economies.

The EIA expects world oil prices--defined as the US refiner acquisition cost
of imported crude oil--to add an extra $11/bbl in 2005 and sees prices
declining from current levels by 2010, and then starting to increase, it said.
The EIA expects world oil to grow to 119-mil b/d by 2025, it said. The
projection, however, is somewhat lower than the 121-mil b/d forecast in 2004's
EIA International Energy Outlook, due in large part to the higher world oil
price projections, it said. 

China's oil use is expected to grow by an average 7.5% per year from 2002 to
2010, before slowing to 2.9% per year through 2025, it said. The projected
increase in world oil use would require a rise in world oil production
capacity of about 35-mil b/d relative to current levels, it said. Consumption
of natural gas in the 2002-2025 period is expected to rise by 69% to 156 Tcf,
it added. Meanwhile, carbon dioxide emissions are expected to rise from
24.4-bil metric tons in 2002 to 30.2-bil metric tons by 2010 and to 38.8-bil
mt by 2025, the EIA said.

Net global electricity consumption is forecast to nearly double in the
2002-2025 period, from 14.275-bil MWh in 2002 to 21.4-bil MWh in 2015 and
26.018-bil MWh in 2025, EIA said. Some 59% of the projected growth in demand
occurs in the emerging economies, where power use is forecast to rise on
average by 4% per year, compared with 2.6% per year worldwide, the EIA said.

Coal and natural gas are expected to remain the most important fuels for
electricity generation worldwide throughout the period, accounting for 62% of
the energy used for power production in 2025, it added. World coal consumption
is projected to rise from 5,262-mil short tons in 2002 to 7,245-mil short tons
in 2015, at an average rate of 2.5% per year. Between 2015 and 2025, the
projected rate of increase in world coal consumption slows to 1.3% annually,
and total consumption in 2025 is projected at 8,226-mil short tons, the EIA
said.

Coal is expected to maintain its importance as an energy source in both the
electric power and industrial sectors, with the two sectors combined
accounting for virtually all the growth in coal use in the mid-term forecast,
EIA said. To a large extent, the slight increase in the importance of coal in
the industrial sector results from the substantial growth projected for
industrial energy consumption in China, which has abundant coal reserves,
limited access to other sources of energy, and a dominant position in world
steel production. Coal is expected to remain the fuel of choice in China's
rapidly expanding industrial sector.

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