OPEC cuts estimates of 2005 and 2006 non-OPEC crude production

London (Platts)--17Aug2005

OPEC Wednesday shaved its forecast of non-OPEC crude production by 17,000 b/d
to 50.5-mil b/d in 2005, representing a 700,000 b/d increase over the previous
year. The oil producer group, in its Monthly Oil Market report, cited a
combination of "slightly improved expectations in Brazil and the loss of
production in India following the accident in the Bombay High field" in July.

In 2006, non-OPEC crude production is seen rising to an average 51.5-mil b/d,
representing an increase of almost 1-mil b/d over 2005 but a downward revision
of 148,000 b/d from last month's report. Including OPEC, NGLs and
non-conventional oils, which are not included in OPEC's quota system, total
non-OPEC supply is seen at 54.74-mil b/d in 2005, rising to 56-mil b/d in
2006. "The adjustment [for 2006] reflects the impact of the delay in the
start-up of Thunder Horse in the USA and the loss of some production in India
due to the accident at Bombay High field," the report said.

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