Panel Sees Growing
Threat in Melting Arctic
August 24, 2005 — By Randolph E. Schmid, Associated Press
WASHINGTON — The rate of ice melting
in the Arctic is increasing and a panel of researchers says it sees no
natural process that is likely to change that trend.
Within a century the melting could lead to summertime ice-free ocean
conditions not seen in the area in a million years, the group said
Tuesday.
Melting of land-based glaciers could take much longer but could raise
the sea levels, potentially affecting coastal regions worldwide.
And changes to the permafrost could undermine buildings, drain water
into bogs and release additional carbon into the atmosphere.
"What really makes the Arctic different from the rest of the non-polar
world is the permanent ice in the ground, in the ocean, and on land,"
said Jonathan T. Overpeck of the University of Arizona and chairman of
the National Science Foundation's Arctic System Science Committee that
issued the report.
"We see all of that ice melting already, and we envision that it will
melt back much more dramatically in the future, as we move towards this
more permanent ice-free state," Overpeck said in a statement.
The panel's findings were published in Tuesday's issue of Eos, the
weekly newspaper of the American Geophysical Union.
The report comes just days after environmental ministers and officials
from 23 countries met in Greenland to call on governments to stop
arguing over global warming and start acting.
That session was held in the town of Ilulissat, near the edge of the
Sermeq Kujalleq glacier that has retreated nearly seven miles since 1960
and has become a symbol of fears that the planet is approaching a
dangerous warming.
The report was issued following a weeklong meeting of scientists that
examined how the Arctic environment and climate interact and how that
system would respond as global temperatures rise.
In the past, Arctic climate has included glacial periods with ice sheets
extending into North America and Europe, and other times of relative
warming.
After studying how various parts of the climate system interact, the
researchers said there are two major feedback systems influencing the
region -- ocean circulation in the North Atlantic and the amount of
precipitation and evaporation that takes place.
Feedback can accelerate changes in the system, they said. For example,
the white sea ice reflects solar radiation back into space, but as the
ice melts the dark water will absorb some of the light, warming and
melting more ice.
The scientists said they did not see any natural mechanism that could
stop the loss of ice.
"I think probably the biggest surprise of the meeting was that no one
could envision any interaction between the components that would act
naturally to stop the trajectory to the new system," Overpeck said.
In addition to sea and land ice melting, Overpeck said that the frozen
soil layer called permafrost will melt and eventually disappear in some
areas. That could release additional greenhouse gases stored in the
permafrost for thousands of years, he said.
Source: Associated Press |