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WASHINGTON, DC, US, August 10, 2005 (Refocus
Weekly)
New federal legislation in the United States will
increase the capacity of solar PV by 48 MW by 2010 but, overall,
growth will be lower with the supportive legislation, according to
the Department of Energy.
DOE’s Energy Information Administration assessed the energy
supply and consumption impacts of the Energy Policy Act of 2005
(H.R. 6), passed by the House of Representatives in April. It
concludes that most provisions of the bill have a “modest impact on
energy production, imports, oil prices, overall energy consumption
and economic growth.”
The summary shows that renewable energies in the U.S. will grow from
5.89 quadrillion Btu in 2003 to 6.86 quads in 2010, with or without
the legislation, and would grow to 8.18 quads by 2025 under the law
but 8.19 quads without the legislation. During all periods of the
20-year analysis, the consumption of renewable energies is lower
with enactment of the legislation.
One of the provisions of H.R. 6 is an annual budget of US$50 million
for five years to commercialize solar photovoltaic generation, which
will add 48 MW of capacity by 2010, an increase of 19%. This
capacity is expected to generate 101 million kWh a year, about 4.8%
of total commercial sector electricity use in 2025.
Other provisions that were analyzed Include rebates for renewable
energy systems in homes and small businesses, tax credits for
residential solar systems, public building photovoltaics, a
renewable fuels standard and cellulose ethanol conversion
assistance, as well as onshore and offshore royalty relief, opening
of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling, a ban on MTBE,
removal of oxygenate requirement for reformulated gasoline,
weatherization assistance, appliance standards and a tax credit for
efficiency improvements to existing homes.
The PV commercialization program includes installation of at least
150 MW of capacity in public buildings cumulatively from 2006
through 2010, and the $50 million annual funding is one- third of
the money needed to install the full 150 MW specified in the bill.
To estimate the impact of the provision, extra program-driven
commercial PV capacity was added over the five-year program, equal
to 48 MW.
Residential initiatives include incentives for the purchase of
renewable technologies which, combined with increases in
weatherization funding and tax credits for existing homes and
renewable technologies, will save 34 trillion Btu of delivered
energy in 2015 (0.3%) and 28 trillion Btu in 2025 (0.2%). The
proposed increases in weatherization funding allow an additional
360,000 low-income homes to be weatherized in 2006 through 2008.
The renewable fuels standard provision requires 3.1 billion gallons
of green fuels to be used in the transportation sector in 2005,
increasing to 5 billion gallons in 2012. Beyond 2013, the share of
green fuel is to remain proportional to the 2012 share of gasoline
sold.
Impacts on green fuel are “very dependent” on the world price of
oil, with ethanol production in the reference case increasing from
2.8 billion gallons in 2003 to 5 billion in 2012. However, if crude
oil prices accelerate, the 5 billion gallon target is reached by
2007.
Energy imports under the legislation are lower than the reference
case because of lower oil imports, and the difference in total
energy consumption between the reference and H.R. 6 cases is less
than 0.1% in all years.
Tax credits for purchases of renewable energy technologies have a
measurable impact on the purchase of ground-source heat pumps,
nearly doubling the stock of the technology by 2025, although earth
energy systems will still account for only 0.7% of the heating
equipment stock in 2025 under H.R. 6.
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