Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Aug 07 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,  Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
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Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 792 (N10W54) produced a long duration C1.4 flare at 07/1249 UTC. Region 794 (S13W23) and Region 795 (N12W13) have remained stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels, with minor storm conditions observed at high latitudes between 07/0300 - 0600 UTC. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 600 km/s, but Bt has decreased to about 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels over the next three days (08 August - 10 August).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M 20/20/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 092
Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 090/090/085
90 Day Mean 07 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 025/034
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 014/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 010/015-010/015-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 10/10/05