Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Aug 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 797 (S13E16) continues to show steady growth in sunspot area although flare production was limited to minor B-class activity. Region 798 (S05E54) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The ACE spacecraft indicated periods of southward Bz early in the period which coincide with the observed active periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Active conditions may be possible late on 16 August due to the onset of a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. Isolated periods of minor to major storming are possible on 17 August in association with the expected maximum solar wind speeds from the coronal hole .
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 075
Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 075/075/080
90 Day Mean 14 Aug 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 006/010-012/015-016/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/35
Minor storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/35/45
Minor storm 05/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/10/10