Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Aug 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 797 (S14W10) continues to show decay in sunspot area while maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 797.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective position during the latter half of 15 August.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at unsettled to active levels on 17 August.
Activity should gradually decline on 18 August and should be quiet to unsettled by 19 August as the coronal hole high speed stream moves out of geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M 10/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 076
Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 075/075/080
90 Day Mean 16 Aug 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 012/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 012/020-010/015-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/35/20
Minor storm 20/15/10
Major-severe storm 15/10/01