Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Aug 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 797 (S14W23) continues to slowly decay in area and magnetic complexity. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. Solar wind speed at ACE has been variable between approximately 600 km/s to 750 km/s due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled levels on 18 August and gradually diminish to quiet to unsettled conditions by 19 - 20 August.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 077
Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 075/080/080
90 Day Mean 17 Aug 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 012/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 010/015-008/008-004/007 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/20/20
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 10/01/01