Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Aug 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered Region 799 (S12W56) was responsible for several B-class flares. LASCO imagery showed a CME at 18/1654 UTC directed towards the southwest which was likely associated with a B2 flare which occurred from Region 799 at 18/1605 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has gradually decreased from approximately 700 km/s to 620 km/s.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active periods on 19 August as the coronal hole high speed stream moves out of geoeffective position. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 20 - 21 August.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 083
Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 18 Aug 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 011/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 008/010-004/007-004/007 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01