Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Aug 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 798 (S10W19) has increased in size to 160 millionths and has a beta gamma magnetic structure. New Region 800 (N16E46) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for an M-class flare from Region 798.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M 10/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 093
Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 100/100/095
90 Day Mean 19 Aug 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 009/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 004/007-004/007-004/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01