Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Aug 23 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 798 (S12W75) produced an M2/Sf flare at 23/1444 UTC. As in previous M flares in this region, it was associated with significant radio output that included type II/IV sweep activity and a CME.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 798 could produce another M-class flare as it rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress: start time 22/2040 UTC and preliminary maximum of 330 pfu at 23/1045 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled until the arrival of the first CME that occurred early on Aug 22. Storm conditions are possible on Aug 24 and 25 due to CME activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue for the next 24 to 48 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M 50/30/10
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 90/50/10
PCAF in progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 112
Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 105/100/090
90 Day Mean 23 Aug 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 007/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 020/030-020/030-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug A. Middle Latitudes
Active 50/50/50
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 60/60/60
Minor storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/10