Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Aug 29 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 803 (N11E14) continues to decay and was limited to minor B-class flare activity. The delta structure seen yesterday has eroded away although gamma structures remain evident. New Region 806 (S17E50) emerged today and produced the largest flare of the period, a C1 x-ray flare occurring at 29/1703Z. This regions appears to have beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. A full halo CME was observed on LASCO imagery beginning at 29/1054Z, it has been determined to be a back-sided event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Active conditions were observed between 29/0300 and 0600Z following several hours of sustained southward Bz. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 30-31 August. Active conditions are possible on 01 September due to the onset of a coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 089
Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 090/090/085
90 Day Mean 29 Aug 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 005/008-008/012-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/30
Minor storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05