Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Aug 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 794 (S12W10) produced a
C1.1 flare at 05/2044 UTC. Region 792 (N10W41) has decayed into a Cso group. Region 795 (N12E00) has developed into a Cso Beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Minor storming was observed at high latitudes between 06/0000 - 1200 UTC. Solar wind data indicate the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream beginning about 05/2200. The solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for minor storm conditions for the next three days (07-09 August).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 093
Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 06 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 022/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 012/015-010/012-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/30
Minor storm 15/10/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/10