by Steven Dudley
17-11-05
While Cuban leader Fidel Castro tried to export
his revolution throughout Latin America in the 1960s with AK-47s, Venezuelan
President Hugo Chavez is fighting to expand his ''21st century socialism'' with
oil barrels. Flush with huge profits from high petroleum prices, Chavez has
offered cheap crude and refineries to neighbours, bought up some of their bonds
and offered cash aid for development programs in a bid to unify the region
around his ideology.
''I think that we Caribbean and Latin Americans need to think about, when the
North American empire crashes, what comes next for us,'' a confident Chavez told
delegates from the Caribbean during the October launch of PetroCaribe, an
arrangement to send Venezuelan oil to those nations.
Chavez may be underestimating the future of the ''empire,'' and not everyone
seems to be signing on to his revolution. Colombian President Alvaro Uribe and
Mexican President Vicente Fox -- who recalled his ambassador from Venezuela in
responseto a similar move by Chavez after the two exchanged words about economic
policy during the Summit of the Americas -- seem to be emerging as the United
States' strongest allies.
How much sway Chavez gains and maintains with the countries that receive his
largess will also depend on his own staying power at home, the future price of
oil and US policies.
Bolivar's dream
But that has not stopped the Venezuelan president from offering his help around
the region while pushing to revive the dream of his hero, Simon Bolivar, the
19th century soldier who led a region from Peru to Venezuela to independence
from Spain but then failed in his efforts to keep it unified as one nation.
''We are prepared to go little by little towards integration, a union so that we
are stronger, and to march forward, as Bolivar says, towards the prosperity of
our people,'' Chavez told the leaders of the Caribbean.
His efforts to export his ideology recall campaigns by Castro, Chavez’s
political mentor, to export hisrevolution with armed groups to Latin America in
the 1960s and '70s. But while unconfirmed Ecuadorian intelligence reports have
alleged that some 20 Latin Americans received guerrilla training in Venezuela
earlier this year, Chavez is more openly using his oil wealth to win influence
over the region.
PetroCaribe, a pact between Venezuela and 14 Caribbean nations, will provide
cheap financing for oil purchases, to be repaid over 25 years. Venezuela also
pledged $ 50 mm for social programs in the Caribbean.
In addition, Chavez is pushing forward PetroAmerica, a Latin America-wide
arrangement that could include swapping human resources like doctors for oil and
natural gas. As part of the deal, the Venezuelan leader says he'll invest $ 2 bn
to expand refining capacity in Jamaica, Cuba and Uruguay, and has spoken of
joint ventures to build refineries in Brazil and Ecuador.
PetroSur -- which involves Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina and Venezuela -- and
PetroAndina -- with Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia and Venezuela -- are both
in motion to round off the PetroAmerica family.
Chavez also is seeking agreements between nations, most of them involving oil
or oil money -- deals to buy bonds and petroleum loans, for example -- and even
attempts to forge accords with like-minded municipal leaders.
In Nicaragua, for example, Chavez has proposed oil sales at below market price
to an association of mayors controlled by the leftist Sandinistas.
Like JFK
''What Chavez is doing is no different than what [President John F.] Kennedy
tried to do [in the 1960s] and what the [US] Agency for International
Development does all the time: He's trying to buy influence,'' said Larry Birns,
director of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, a Washington think tank often
critical of US policy on Latin America.
Chavez’s plans for regional unity around his side of the political spectrum is
running headlong into the Bush administration's policies. US officials have
branded the Venezuelan president a destabilizing influence in the region, but he
remains popular with many of its residents.
''What has happened is that the Bush administration is on a major offensive
to discredit Chavez,'' Birns added. “But it's the Bush administration policy,
not Chavez, that really is isolated.''
Chavez has fought back and regularly chastises the United States as
“imperialist.''Chavez’s search for regional influence already has had some
impact. US officials privately complains that his warm relations with the 14
Caribbean countries swayed some of their votes in the 34-member Organization of
American States.
OAS leader
The Caribbean members, for example, joined Chavez in opposing the US-backed
conservative candidate for the post of OAS secretary general, former Salvadoran
President Francisco Flores. Flores eventually withdrew and Chile's José Miguel
Insulza was elected.
' He's... castrating the OAS,'' said retired US Ambassador Myles Frechette, a
Latin American specialist now in private consulting.
But Frechette and other analysts say it may not be so easy for Chavez to
maintain his new alliances, especially if a drop in oil prices hurts his foreign
assistance plans and perhaps even his chances of holding power at home.
What's more, Frechette says that Chavez, with his aggressive anti-Americanism
and still undetailed brand of socialism, may not be as appealing to his
neighbours as he thinks -- and some US officials fear.
Source: Miami Herald