10-11-05
The UK will face a 20 % shortfall in its power
supply by 2015 unless action is taken now, according to a significant new
report. The report was compiled by a panel of 150 experts from all sectors of
the energy industry.
By 2015, nine of the country's eleven nuclear power stations will have closed
along with many coal fired power plants, due to the European Large Combustion
Plant Directive.
Without the need to curb emissions, the report states that the predicted
shortfall could be met easily. However, with the need to meet emissions targets,
there are a number of key decisions that the panel says must be taken sooner
rather than later.
While there are a number of different energy options to plug the predicted
energy gap, fossil fuels will continue to play the largest role, meaning greater
use of the latest efficiency and emission capturing technology.
John Loughhead of the UK Energy Research Centre, said: "Up to the year 2050,
fossil fuels will remain the dominant energy source. Therereally is no
alternative."
The panel declared that although the cost of renewables is falling, they
would continue to need financial support until the costs are low enough for them
to stand-alone. The offshore wind industry in particular is promising, but it
may not reach maturity soon enough.
The government's Department of Trade and Industry has recently received
applications for the build of three large-scale wind farms planned for the
Thames Estuary. If permission were granted it would add 1,800 MW of new offshore
wind capacity to the country's generation mix.
Nuclear energy was another option the report covered. It would be able to
provide the quantities required while assisting the government with its
emissions target.
However, without immediate government provisions of long term guarantees and
support structures, it is unlikely that the private industry will be prepared to
take the risk of financing a new build programme.
Source: Power Engineering Magazine