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GENEVA, Switzerland, December 21, 2005
(Refocus Weekly)
Wind power capacity must expand significantly
within the next 20 years, according to the World Business Council
for Sustainable Development.
By 2025, generation from biomass and other renewables (excluding
hydro) is multiplied by a factor of 18 compared with 2002 levels,
predicts the WBCSD in its ‘Pathways to 2050 - Energy & climate
change’ publication which builds on the 2004 ‘Facts & Trends to
2050: Energy & Climate Change’ document. This publication provides
more details of potential pathways towards a stabilization of CO2
emissions at 550 ppm in 2050, “an ambitious undertaking in a rapidly
growing world,” it concedes.
The group is much higher than reference forecasts from the
International Energy Agency, by a factor of 5, the group notes.
Renewables from wind and solar grow substantially, with wind being
10 to 15 times its 2002 level which will require consistent approach
across the European Union for the development of renewables.
Commercialization of Carbon Capture & Storage will have started by
2025, with 100 coal-based CCS facilities in operation, although the
technology “needs to prove its permanence and add value through
enhanced oil recovery, coal bed methane technology or direct carbon
value before gaining widespread acceptance.” Many nuclear reactors
which are currently operating are replaced, and an additional 30% of
new capacity is installed, it predicts.
“Energy changes have been considerable since 1971, giving the EU one
of the fastest and most consistent decarbonization trends,” it
explains. “But the scale of change in the next 50 years will eclipse
even the changes seen so far, with new industries developing,
focussed on renewable power generation, advanced biomass fuels,
hydrogen based transport and carbon sequestration.”
“Final energy demand will need to decline and shift strongly to
electricity” and, by 2050, developments include a heavy reliance on
coal for power generation (but with 50% of that
capturing and storing the CO2), a nuclear generation industry
equivalent in size to that in the EU and North America combined
today, and a high-efficiency vehicle fleet of 350 million units,
achieving the equivalent of 6 litres per 100 km of travel. Gasoline
and diesel are the predominant fuel, but hydrogen has a significant
foothold, it notes.
“A large-scale renewable infrastructure for power generation, with
wind power as the largest single source (200,000 5 MW turbines)”
will also be a feature by 2050, with sustainable biomass practices
throughout the economy.
“Widespread action to stabilize CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere
must start now,” the document warns. “Achieving this goal will
require a large-scale deployment of a wide range of technologies.”
“The challenge is not only that this involves high investment and
complex choices, but that we’ll also have to respond to issues such
as energy security and affordability,” adds Laurent Corbier of the
WBCSD. “A complete transformation of how we produce and use energy
will be required to succeed.”
The publication identifies five principal ‘megatrends’ which can
make a substantial impact in power generation, industry and
manufacturing, mobility, buildings and consumer choices. In power
generation, the challenge is that demand by 2050 will rise four
times its 2002 levels, while emissions from the sector cannot exceed
25% of 2002 levels, which means a substantial reduction in carbon
intensity and the Pathways report suggests that nuclear will need to
grow together with wind, geothermal, wave, tidal and hydro power.
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