Green groups confident even as pressure grows and ANWR vote nears

Washington (Platts)--13Dec2005

Even with the Bush Administration spreading out to drum up for support
for drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, pro-drilling
forces still have an uphill battle to get the measure passed this year. 

     "We are feeling pretty confident" about protecting ANWR from drilling
this year, but "we are remaining vigilant," Athan Manuel, director of US
PIRG's Arctic Wilderness Campaign, said Tuesday. He said pro-drilling
lawmakers are "still a few votes short in the House" of passing a budget
reconciliation bill that attempts to open the refuge to drilling.

     Informal talks have already begun in the House and Senate ahead of formal
negotiations between the two chambers to work out differences in the two
versions of the budget reconciliation bill, the vehicle with which
pro-drilling lawmakers hope to use to open the refuge -- believed to contain
about 10-bil bbl of oil -- to oil and gas drilling. House and Senate
negotiators are expected to be named later this week, and a final budget
reconciliation bill -- with or without ANWR -- could be voted on as early as
this weekend. 

     Congressional leaders decided to target the budget reconciliation bill as
a vehicle to open ANWR because such bills cannot be filibustered in the
Senate, and require only a majority of support for passage. Because regular
legislation can be filibustered, 60 votes would be necessary to limit
debate and pass a bill. 

     The Senate's budget reconciliation bill includes ANWR drilling, with a
caveat that any oil produced from the refuge cannot be exported out of the
country. But the House jettisoned the ANWR provision from its bill when
Republican moderates, and virtually all Democrats, refused to support the bill
if it was included. Many Democrats are also opposed to the bill's cuts to
social welfare programs.

     "The moderates on the House side are doing a great job of sticking
together and communicating to their leadership that this bill cannot include
ANWR" if it is going to pass, Manuel said. That message seems to be getting
through to House leadership, who "are between and a rock and a hard place,"
fearing that if they restore money for social welfare program to win some
Democrats, they could lose conservative Republicans, he explained.

     Manuel said, "the ball is really in the court of the Senate leaders,"
including Senate Energy Committee Chairman Pete Domenici (Republican-New
Mexico) and Senate Commerce Committee Chairman Ted Stevens
(Republican-Alaska). Stevens, in particular, has floated several trial
balloons aimed at offering incentives to House Democrats to get the votes
necessary for ANWR passage. He and the Bush Administration see passage of the
budget reconciliation with ANWR as a best hope to finally approve development,
which has been tied up in Congress for over a decade.

     Arm twisting is expected to continue in earnest in coming days and Bush
Administration officials have been doing their part this week to step up the
pressure. Interior Secretary Gale Norton, Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman and
Labor Secretary Elaine Chao have all made public appearances to rally support
for the proposal.

     But the pressure by the Bush Administration, which included ANWR as a
cornerstone of its energy policy, may fall on deaf ears with moderate
Republicans, many of whom represent suburban districts, Manuel said. "As
compelling as the White House can be, they pay more to their constituents,"
many of whom oppose ANWR drilling, he said. 

     The timetable for a vote has not yet been finalized. Some Congressional
sources have said that the House vote on the budget reconciliation bill this
weekend, while others say that leadership is considering adjourning for the
holidays and coming back to the legislation in January. 

		--Cathy Landry, cathy_landry@platts.com

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