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WASHINGTON, DC, US, December 14, 2005 (Refocus
Weekly)
Consumption of renewable energy in the United
States will increase by 1.8% a year over the next quarter-century,
according to the latest forecast from the Department of Energy.
A total of 9.02 quadrillion Btu (quad) of renewables will be
consumed by 2030, compared with 5.70 quads in 2003, says DOE’s
Energy Information Administration in its ‘Annual Energy Outlook
2006.’ That will be 6.7% of the country’s total energy consumption
of 134 quads in 2030, led by oil at 54 quad (annual increase of
1.1%), natural gas at 28 quad (0.7%), coal at 34 quad (1.7%),
nuclear at 9.09 quad (0.4%) and other sources at 0.05 quad.
Primary energy production will be led by coal at 34 quad, dry
natural gas at 21, oil at 12, with renewables and nuclear both at 9
quad by 2030, out of a national production total of 89 quad.
Emissions of CO2 will be increased to 8,115 Mt by 2030 from 5,815 Mt
in 2004, an annual increase of 1.2%.
“Incentives intended to stimulate the development of advanced
nuclear and renewable plants have particularly noteworthy impacts,”
the report notes, with a total of 6 GW of new nuclear capacity
projected to be added by 2030 in the reference case as a result of
government incentives.
The forecast consumption of coal, nuclear and renewables have been
increased from earlier predictions, while petroleum and natural gas
consumption are lower, due to higher anticipated energy prices for
oil and gas, as well as lower projected growth rates in the
manufacturing sector which traditionally is the most
energy-intensive industry. There will also be greater penetration by
hybrid and diesel vehicles in the transport sector and higher
efficiency regulations will reduce energy consumption in the
residential and commercial sectors, and slow the growth of
electricity demand.
Total consumption of marketed renewable fuels in the reference case
(including ethanol for gasoline blending) will grow from 6.0 to 9.6
quad as a result of state programs (RPS and mandates) for green
power, technological advances, higher petroleum and natural gas
prices, and the effects of federal tax credits. More than 60% of the
projected demand for renewables in the reference case is for
grid-tied generation (including combined heat and power), while the
rest is for dispersed heating and cooling, industrial uses, and fuel
blending.
The use of renewables to generate electricity will grow (including
CHP) by 1.7% per year, from 358 billion kWh in 2004 to 559 b-kWh in
2030.
Coal will remain the primary fuel for power generation through 2030,
with its share of total generation increasing from 50% in 2004 to
57% in 2030. The share of natural gas will increase from 18% to 22%
by 2020 before falling to 17% in 2030, and the average delivered
price of electricity will decline from 7.6 cents per kWh to 7.1
cents in 2015 as a result of falling natural gas prices and, to a
lesser extent, coal prices. After 2015, average prices will increase
to 7.5 cents per kWh in 2030.
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