Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Dec 01 0017 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels today.

Region 826 (S02E36) produced an impulsive M1 x-ray flare occurring at 30/1752Z. White-light observations in Region 826, depict a rapid growth phase in sunspot area since yesterday. This region has also developed in magnetic complexity, with beta-gamma characteristics evident. New Region 827 (N08E56) was numbered today and is currently a simply structured beta group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 826 is magnetically complex enough to produce further isolated M-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.

A period of active conditions occurred at middle and high latitudes between 30/0900 and 1200Z IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Minor storm conditions with a chance of high latitude major storm periods are possible on 01 and 02 December due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. A return to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 03 December as the coronal moves out of geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec

Class M 30/30/35

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 30 Nov 095

Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 100/105/105

90 Day Mean 30 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 006/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 012/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 015/020-015/020-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec A. Middle Latitudes

Active 30/30/20

Minor storm 15/15/05

Major-severe storm 10/10/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 40/40/20

Minor storm 25/25/10

Major-severe storm 15/15/05