Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Dec 05 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 826 (S06W35) continues to decrease in area.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible on 07 December.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec

Class M 10/10/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 05 Dec 092

Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 090/090/090

90 Day Mean 05 Dec 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 003/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 005/007-008/012-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/20/15

Minor storm 05/10/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/25/20

Minor storm 10/15/10

Major-severe storm 01/05/01