Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Dec 07 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 830 (N13E10) produced the only flare of the past day, a B5/Sf at 07/1852 UTC. All regions currently on the disk are small and simple.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. A small C-class flare is possible in Region 826 (S05W69) or 830 (N13E10).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 07 Dec 089

Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 085/085/080

90 Day Mean 07 Dec 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 001/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 002/003

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 005/005-005/005-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01