Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Dec 08 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C1 flare occurred at 08/1902 UTC from a new region just beyond the east limb near N19E90. Both Regions 826 (S06W80) and 830 (N12W01) produced small B-class flares.

New Region 832 (S14W61) emerged on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

C-class activity is possible in Regions 826 and 830 as well as the new region rotating onto the disk near N19E90.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 08 Dec 090

Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 085/080/080

90 Day Mean 08 Dec 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 001/000

Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 000/000

Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 005/007-008/012-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01