Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Dec 09 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. New Region 835 (N19E78) produced a C1 flare at 08/2141 UTC. This region also produced a few small B-class flares over the past day. New Regions 833 (S17W52) and

834 (S07E77) were also numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

Additional C-class flares are possible in Region 835 (N19E78).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 09 Dec 089

Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 085/085/085

90 Day Mean 09 Dec 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 001/001

Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 001/001

Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 008/010-008/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01