Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Dec 11 2244 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity ::::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::::
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to one C-class flare, a C1 at 1338Z from Region 835 (N18E55). This group is the largest on the disk at 220 millionths and appears to have a simple beta magnetic class.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (12-14 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels, with a minor storm period at high latitudes from 1500-2100Z. Solar wind speed showed an increase up to 550-660 km/s after 0800Z which was accompanied by enhanced interplanetary magnetic field and temperature. The velocity appeared to be slowly declining after 1500Z. These solar wind signatures are consistent with a small coronal-hole-high-speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours (12 December) with a chance for isolated active periods. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 13 December followed by generally quiet conditions for 14 December.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 093
Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 11 Dec 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 017/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 008/014-005/010-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/25/25
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01