Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Dec 13 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted of several B-class events, mostly from Region 835 (N17E33). Region

835 continues to be the largest group on the disk with about 180 millionths sunspot area, but has been stable and unchanging during the last 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (14-16 December).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next three days (14-16 December).

III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 13 Dec 088

Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 090/090/085

90 Day Mean 13 Dec 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 007/009

Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 007/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 005/005-005/008-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/25/25

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01