Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Dec 14 2237 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to two C-class flares. The first was a C1 at 13/2147Z from a region on the east limb near S11. The event was associated with a type II radio sweep and a limb CME. The second was a C1 at 14/1012Z from Region 836 (S10W52). This region was newly assigned late on the 13th and has been growing steadily. Region 835 (N18E15) is still the largest group on the disk but is slowly decaying. Another east limb CME was observed late in the day by the Mauna Loa and LASCO-C2 coronagraphs, beginning at about 14/1832Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low during the next three days (15-17 December).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 15 December and should be predominantly quiet for 16-17 December.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec

Class M 10/10/10

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 14 Dec 090

Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 090/090/085

90 Day Mean 14 Dec 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 004/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 005/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/25/25

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01