Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Dec 15 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A few small B-class flares occurred during the last 24 hours, mostly originating from Region 835 (N18E01). Region 835 continues to be the largest group on the disk with a sunspot area of about 160 millionths.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec

Class M 10/10/10

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 15 Dec 087

Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 085/085/085

90 Day Mean 15 Dec 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 002/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01