Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Dec 29 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Activity was at low levels. Region 843 (N12E27) produced the largest flare of the period, a C1/Sf event that occurred at 28/2238Z. Region 844 (S15W59) is a Cao beta spot group that was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Isolated active periods may be possible on 30 December due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 31 December and 01 January as the coronal hole moves out geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 29 Dec 090

Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 090/090/085

90 Day Mean 29 Dec 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 013/014

Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 010/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 008/010-005/010-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/05

Major-severe storm 05/05/01