The other gas
crisis ; A Ukraine-Russia price row
Dec 29, 2005 - Washington Times
Author(s): M. Ron Wahid, Special To The Washington Times
Driving to New York City this holiday season? What if you couldn't
drive through New Jersey because that state and New York had been unable
to agree on the tolls at the Lincoln Tunnel? That's not a bad analogy
for what is happening right now, as winter sets in, between Russia and
Ukraine in their dispute over the pipeline bringing Russian gas to
Europe and to Ukraine itself.
The pipeline passes through Ukraine, but Ukraine has refused to agree
to a 2006 rates schedule, even with the New Year fast approaching. This
commercial brinksmanship helps no one and has already hurt Ukraine.
It doesn't make sense as a negotiating tactic on a Manhattan transit
strike; it makes even less sense for two developing nations struggling
to achieve economic growth and attract Western investment after 70 years
of Soviet Communism.
Russia holds the world's largest gas reserves and is the second-
largest oil exporter. Up to 80 percent of Russia's gas exports to
Western Europe pass through Ukraine, and this accounts for about 25
percent of Western Europe's supply of natural gas.
The two sides had originally agreed to sign an agreement by July 1 on
gas rates for 2006. But Ukraine's strategy was evidently to delay.
Aleksey Ivchenko, head of the Ukrainian gas company Naftogaz, was
reported by Kommersant Ukraina in October to have said, "We shall wait
until the end of the year and then if Gazprom will not sign with us the
agreement on the transit of gas, we shall begin technical seizure [of
the pipeline]."
The Russian company Gazprom's original proposal was for a gradual gas
price increase, leading to eventual full market rates for its Western
European customers. With soaring world prices, however, that rate is no
longer economical. Ukraine's delays, therefore, did nothing but raise
the cost of gas to Ukrainian customers. Ukraine's refusal to negotiate a
fair agreement in the summer has seriously hurt its economy and now
raises the specter of an energy crisis in Europe this winter if the
parties cannot agree on a rate for transit of gas.
More generally, this kind of attitude hurts Ukraine's reputation in
its efforts to attract Western investment. No foreign investor wants to
worry about whether it can protect its investment in the event of
adverse commercial conditions.
Consider the issue also from the perspective of international
politics. If Ukraine continues to balk at reasonable terms for passage
of gas, the logical alternative is a pipeline through Belarus, Europe's
last dictatorship. Is this truly in Western interests? Further east,
recently, Kazakhstan inaugurated a new oil pipeline to China, a rapidly
expanding market. So it is in the interests of all countries in Europe,
as well as the United States, to keep oil and gas flowing smoothly on
commercial terms to the West.
Commerce in hydrocarbons cannot easily continue if one country uses
the simple fact of geography to exact exorbitant fees from users of the
pipeline in other countries. The United States solved this problem in
1787 through the Commerce Clause, prohibiting any one state from
interfering with commerce between the states. Ukraine has a clear right
to a toll for the passage of gas across its territory; in recent years,
Ukraine has essentially agreed to barter access to its territory for
below-market prices for gas. That's a logical outcome. But gaming the
system will tempt other countries to do the same, leading to higher oil
and gas prices for all consumers.
Ukraine's policies will raise prices for all, slowing down economies
and discouraging the further Russian investments in energy which will
develop Russian reserves for all consumers, including Americans, in the
quickest, safest, and most environmentally sound manner.
Energy prices are high enough right now without adding excessively
high fees. Energy is like other commodities: If prices rise too high
thanks to punitive tariffs, then consumers will seek alternative sources
of supply or reduce consumption. How does either strategy benefit
Ukraine? Does Ukraine really want an economic slowdown in Europe or to
oppose legitimate Russian commerce? And how does this stance help
Ukraine's aspirations to join the European Union? Should it not instead
seek to ease commercial transactions between Russia and the EU? If
Ukraine wishes to be seen as a "bridge to Europe," it should not make
using the bridge difficult for either side.
A year ago, the West celebrated the Orange Revolution and Ukraine's
re-emergence as a democratic state. This time, however, those who
believe in free markets and freedom of commerce must side with Russia.
M. Ron Wahid is president of Washington-based RJI Capital Corp.,
which focuses on international energy transactions.
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