Part
  II. Alternatives to Oil: Fuels
  
  of
  the Future or Cruel Hoaxes?
  
  
  
  
  
  What about
  alternatives to oil? Can’t we just switch to different sources of energy?
  
  
  
  Unfortunately, the
  ability of alternative energies to replace oil is based more in mythology and
  utopian fantasy than in reality and hard science. Oil accounts for 40 percent
  of our current US energy supply and a comparable percentage of the world’s
  energy supply.  The US currently consumes 7.5 billion barrels of oil per
  year, while the world consumes 30 billion per year.
  
  
  
  None of the
  alternatives to oil can supply anywhere near this much energy, let alone the
  amount we will need in the future as our population continues to grow and
  industrialize.
  
  
  
  When examining
  alternatives to oil, it is of critical importance that you ask certain
  questions:
  
  
  
  1.  Is the
  alternative easily transportable like oil?
  
  
  
  2.  Is the
  alternative energy dense like oil?
  
  
  
  3. Is the
  alternative capable of being adapted for transportation, heating, and the
  production of pesticides, plastics, and petrochemicals?
  
  
  
  4. Does the
  alternative have an Energy Profit Ratio (EPR) comparable to oil?
  
  
  
  Oil used to have an
  EPR as high as 30. It only took one barrel of oil to extract 30 barrels of
  oil. This was such a fantastic ratio that oil was practically free energy.
  Some oil wells had EPRs close to 100. In fact, at one point in Texas, water
  cost more than oil!
  
  
  
  Cheap (high-EPR)
  energy has formed the basis upon which all of our economic, political, and
  social institutions and relationships have formed. Live in the suburbs and
  commute to work? You can only do so as long as we have cheap energy to fuel
  long-distance transportation. Met your spouse at a location more than a one
  hour drive from your home or work? Never would have happened without cheap
  energy. Eat food shipped in from all around the world? Can’t do it without
  cheap fossil-fuel powered transportation networks.
  
  
  
  None of the things
  we have become accustomed to in the industrialized world would have existed if
  the EPR of oil had been as low as the EPR of the alternatives we hope to
  replace oil with.
  
  
  
  5. To what degree
  does the distribution, implementation, and use of this alternative require
  massive retrofitting of our industrial infrastructure? How much money, energy,
  and time will this retrofitting require?
  
  
  
  6.  To what
  degree does the distribution, implementation, and use of this alternative
  require other resources which are in short supply? Do these other resources
  exist in quantities sufficient enough that the alternative is capable of being
  scaled up on a massive level? Are these resources located in highly unstable
  parts of the world? To what degree are the discovery, extraction,
  transportation, refining, and distribution of these resources dependent on
  cheap oil?
  
  
  
  7. To what degree
  does the distribution, implementation, and use of this alternative require
  massive upfront investments in money and energy, both of which will be in
  short supply as the world begins to suffer from severe oil shocks?
  
  
  
  8. What are the
  unintended consequences of the distribution, implementation, and use of this
  alternative? 
  
  
  
  We have an energy
  infrastructure which is incredibly mammoth, intricate, and volatile. It is
  inextricably intertwined with economic, political, and social systems equally
  mammoth, intricate, and volatile.
  
  
  
  When you are
  dealing with systems this complex, even a minor change can set off a ripple of
  unintended and destabilizing effects. Attempting to make fundamental changes,
  like where you get energy from and how much you pay for it, can have
  disastrous effects, regardless of how well-intended the attempts are.
  
  
  
  Sources:
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
   Energy
  Supply?
Energy
  Supply?
  
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  ------------------
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  Can’t we use
  coal to replace oil?
  
  
  
  Like oil, coal is a
  fossil fuel. It accounts for 25 percent of current US energy supply. 
  While coal can be substituted for oil in some limited applications, it will
  only be able to cover a small percentage of the coming energy shortfall due to
  the following reasons:
  
  
  
  1. It is 50 percent
  to 200 percent heavier than oil per energy unit. This makes it much more
  expensive and energy-intensive to transport than oil.
  
  
  
  2. Coal-mining
  operations run on oil fuels as do coal-mining machinery and transportation. As
  oil becomes more expensive, so will coal.
  
  
  
  3. Pollution is
  also a major problem. A single coal-fired station can produce a million tons
  of solid waste each year. Burning coal in homes pollutes air with smog
  containing acid gases and particles. If coal use is expanded enough to cover
  the shortfall in energy supply brought on by Peak Oil, we can expect global
  warming effects so severe the Earth would become inhospitable to human life.
  
  4. Contrary to
  popular belief, the world is not endowed with enough coal to replace much more
  than a fraction of the energy we get from oil. If demand for coal remains
  frozen at the current rate of consumption, the coal reserve will last roughly
  250 years. Population growth alone reduces the supply to about 100 years
  worth. If coal is substituted for other fuels, the supply is reduced to about
  50 years’ worth.
  
  
  
  As with oil, the
  production of coal will peak long before the supply is exhausted, most likely
  within 25 years.
  
  
  
  5. Coal used to
  have an EPR of about 100. Currently, coal’s EPR is about 8 and dropping
  rapidly. At its current rate of decline, Coal’s EPR will drop to .5 by the
  year 2040. In other words, it will be an energy loser: it will take two units
  of coal to extract one unit of coal.  When any resource requires more
  energy to extract it than it contains, it ceases to be an energy source.
   
  
  
  
  Sources:
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
   Energy
  Crisis
Energy
  Crisis
  
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  -----------------
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  What about
  substituting natural gas for oil?
  
  
  
  Like oil and coal,
  natural gas is a fossil fuel. It accounts for 25 percent of current US energy
  supply. As a replacement for oil, it is unsuitable for the following reasons:
  
  
  
  1. US natural gas
  production peaked around 1970. By the year 2000, US domestic production was at
  1/3 of its peak level. While natural gas can be imported in its liquefied
  form, the process of liquefying and transporting it is extraordinarily
  expensive and very dangerous. Demand for natural gas in North America is
  already outstripping supply, especially as power utilities take the remaining
  gas to generate electricity. Within a few years, we will be dealing with a
  natural gas crisis as severe, if not more so, then the oil crisis.
  
  
  
  2. Gas is not
  suited for existing jet aircraft, ships, vehicles, and equipment and heavy
  agricultural equipment such as tractors.
  
  
  
  3.  Conversion
  consumes large amounts of energy as well as money.
  
  
  
  4. Natural gas
  cannot provide the huge array of petrochemicals for which we depend on oil.
  
  
  
  Sources:
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
   Natural
  Gas Depletion
Natural
  Gas Depletion
  
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  ------------------
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  What about using
  methane hydrates from the ocean floor as fuel?
  
  
  
  Methane hydrates
  are deposits of ice-like crystals that trap natural gas under conditions of
  high pressure and low temperature such as those found in sea-floor sediments
  or in permafrost. They contain huge quantities of natural gases and are often
  promoted as an alternative to oil. Unfortunately, hopes of exploiting methane
  hydrates as a fuel source are little more than pipe dreams for several
  reasons:
  
  
  
  1.  It is
  difficult to accumulate in commercial quantities.
  
  
  
  2.  Estimates
  of methane hydrates fell steadily in the last 30 years due to growing
  knowledge of the fashion in which they are destroyed in ocean sediments.
  
  3. Recovery is
  extremely dangerous and about six times more expensive than the exploitation
  of oil and other gas sources.  
  
  
  
  Sources:
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  -------------------
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  What about
  Geothermal Energy? Could we get our energy from things like volcanoes?
  
  
  
  Less than 1 percent
  of the world’s electricity production comes from geothermal sources. As a
  replacement for oil, it is unsuitable due to the following reasons:
  
  
  
  1. Geothermal power
  is dependant upon geography. Plants must be near hot springs, volcanoes, or
  geysers.
  
  
  
  2. Can’t be
  adapted for cars, boats, airplanes, tanks, and other forms of transportation.
  
  
  
  3. Can’t be used
  to produce petrochemicals.
  
  
  
  Sources:
  
  
  
  
  
   By
  Richard Heinberg (Page 151)
By
  Richard Heinberg (Page 151)
  
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  ------------------
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  What about
  hydrogen? Everybody talks about it so much; it must be good, right?
  
  
  
  Hydrogen accounts
  for 0.01 percent of the US energy supply. As a replacement for oil, it is
  unsuitable for the following reasons:
  
  
  
  1. Hydrogen must be
  made from coal, oil, natural gas, wood, biomass or water. In every instance,
  it takes more energy to create hydrogen than the hydrogen actually provides.
  It is therefore an energy “carrier,” not an energy source. 
  
 
  
  
  2. Liquid hydrogen
  occupies four to eleven times the bulk of equivalent gasoline or diesel.
  
  
  
  3. Existing
  vehicles and aircraft and existing distribution systems are not suited to it.
  
  
  
  4. Hydrogen cannot
  be used to manufacture petrochemicals or plastics.
  
  
  
  5. The cost of fuel
  cells is absolutely astronomical and has shown no downtrend.
  
  
  
  6. A single
  hydrogen fuel cell requires 20 grams of platinum. If the cells are
  mass-produced, it may be possible to get the platinum requirement down to 10
  grams per cell. The world has 7.7 billion grams of proven platinum reserves.
  There are approximately 700 million internal combustion engines on the road.
  
  
  
  10 grams of
  platinum per fuel cell x 700 million fuel cells = 7 billion grams of platinum,
  or practically every gram of platinum in the earth.
  
  
  
  Unfortunately, the
  average fuel cell lasts only 200 hours. Two hundred hours translates into just
  12,000 miles, or about one year’s worth of driving at 60 miles per
  hour.  This means all 700 million fuel cells (with 10 grams of platinum
  in each one) would have to be replaced every single year.
  
  
  
  Thus replacing the
  700 million oil-powered vehicles on the road with fuel cell-powered vehicles,
  for only 1 year, would require us to mine every single ounce of platinum
  currently in the earth and divert all of it for fuel cell construction only.
  
  
  
  Doing so is
  absolutely impossible as platinum is astonishingly energy-intensive
  (expensive) to mine, is already in short supply, and is indispensable to
  thousands of crucial industrial processes.
  
  
  
  Even if this wasn’t
  the case, the fuel cell solution would last less than  one year. As with
  oil, platinum production would peak long before the supply is exhausted.
  
  
  
  What will we do,
  when less than 6 months into the “Hydrogen Economy,” we hit “Peak
  Platinum?” Perhaps Michael Moore will produce a movie documenting the
  connection between the President’s family and foreign platinum companies? At
  the same time, presidential candidate will likely proclaim a plan to “reduce
  our dependence on foreign platinum,” while insisting he will “jawbone the
  foreign platinum bosses,” and “make sure American troops don’t have to
  die for foreign platinum.”
  
  
  
  If the hydrogen
  economy was anything other than a total red herring, such issues would
  eventually arise as 80 percent of the world’s proven platinum reserves are
  located in that bastion of geopolitical stability, South Africa.
  
  7. It’s possible
  to use solar-derived electricity to get hydrogen from water, but a renewable,
  hydrogen-based economy will require the installation of 40 trillion dollars
  worth of photovoltaic panels.  That’s 400 percent of the US GDP
  
  
  
  This is on top of
  the cost of mining every single ounce of platinum in the earth, building the
  fuel cells, and constructing a hydrogen infrastructure. All of which would
  have to completed in the midst of massive oil shortages and economic
  dislocations.
  
  
  
  8. Because hydrogen
  is the simplest element, it will leak from any container, no mater how strong
  and no matter how well insulated. For this reason, hydrogen in storage tanks
  will always evaporate, at a rate of at least 1.7 percent per day.
  
  
  
  Hydrogen is such a
  poor replacement for oil that “Hydrogen Fuel Cells” should be called “Hydrogen
  Fool Cells.” This could explain why the “governator” of California has
  proposed a hydrogen-highway.
  
  
  
  Sources:
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  ------------------
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  What about
  Nuclear Power?
  
  
  
  Nuclear power
  accounts for 8 percent of US energy production.  As a replacement for
  oil, it is unsuitable for the following reasons:
  
  
  
  1. Nuclear power is
  extremely expensive. A single reactor costs between 3 and 5 billion dollars,
  not counting the costs associated with decommissioning, scarcer nuclear fuels;
  safeguarding nuclear facilities and materials from sabotage, terrorism, and
  diversion; increased likelihood of major, multi-billion-dollar accidents and
  their disrupting economic effects.
  
  
  
  2. Number of
  reactors needed in the US alone: 800-1000. Current number: only 100.
  
  
  
  3. Retrofitting
  current vehicles to run on nuclear-generated electricity would further
  increase the expenses related to a nuclear solution.
  
  
  
  4. Nuclear power
  cannot be used to produce plastics, pesticides, or petrochemicals.
  
  
  
  5. Uranium requires
  energy from oil in order to be mined. As oil gets more expensive, so will
  nuclear power.
  
  
  
  6. All abandoned
  reactors are radioactive for millennia.
  
  
  
  7. A nuclear power
  plant requires tremendous amounts of energy to construct. Nuclear power has
  only existed because the oil used to construct nuclear power plants has been
  so cheap.
  
  
  
  8. Even if we were
  to overlook these problems, nuclear power is only a short-term solution.
  Uranium, too, has a Hubbert’s peak, and the current known reserves can
  supply the Earth’s energy needs for only 25-40 years at best.
  
  
  
  Sources:
  
  
  
   By
  Richard Heinber (P. 132-137)
By
  Richard Heinber (P. 132-137)
  
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  --------------------
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  What about solar
  power?
  
  
  
  Solar power
  currently supplies less than one-tenth of one percent of the US energy
  supply.  As a replacement for oil, it is unsuitable due to the following
  reasons:
  
  
  
  1. Unlike energy
  derived from fossil fuels, energy derived from solar power is extremely
  intermittent: it varies constantly with weather or day/night. If a large city
  wants to derive a significant portion of its electricity from solar power, it
  must build fossil-fuel-fired or nuclear-powered electricity plants to provide
  backup for the times when solar energy is not available.
  
  
  
  2.  Solar
  power has a capacity of about 20 percent. This means that if a utility wants
  to install 100 megawatts of solar power, they need to install 500 megawatts of
  solar panels.  This makes solar power a prohibitively expensive and
  pragmatically poor replacement for the cheap and abundant fossil fuel energy
  our economy depends on.
  
  
  
  3. Oil provides 90
  percent of the world’s transportation fuel. Unfortunately, solar power is
  largely incapable of meeting these needs. While a handful of small,
  experimental, solar-powered vehicles have been built, solar power is largely
  unsuited for planes, boats, cars, tanks, etc. As mentioned previously, it is
  possible to use solar panels to get electricity from water, but a
  solar-hydrogen economy would require the installation of 40 trillion dollars
  of solar panels.
  
  
  
  4.  That solar
  energy is nowhere near as fossil fuel energy is illustrated by the fact it
  would take 84 square miles of solar panels to replace the energy that a single
  gas station sells on a single day. Likewise, it would take solar panels
  covering all of New Jersey to replace the energy dispensed by just 100 gas
  stations in a single day.
  
  5. Solar power
  cannot be adapted to produce pesticides, plastics, or petrochemicals.
  
  
  
  6. Solar is
  susceptible to the effects of global climate change, which is projected to
  greatly intensify in the decades to come. Even typically sunny places, such as
  Florida, may not be able to count on having weather patterns conducive to the
  the use of solar energy.
  
  7. Energy from
  solar power is extremely dilute. Estimates are that about 20 percent of US
  land area would be required to support a solar energy system that would supply
  less than one-half of our current energy consumption. To develop such a system
  would require a phenomenal level of investment and new infrastructure. This
  land requirement can be expected to diminish arable, pasture, and forest lands
  to some extent, with the most critical loss being arable land.  As
  explained previously, by 2050, the US will only have enough arable land to
  feed half its population. 
  
  
  
  8. The geographic
  areas most suited for large solar farms are typically very warm areas, such as
  deserts. This requires the energy collected by the panels to be converted to
  electricity and then transmitted over large distances to power more densely
  populated regions.
  
  
  
  Unfortunately, heat
  makes electricity extremely difficult to transmit. The benefits of setting up
  solar farms in sun-drenched areas like the  desert are largely offset by
  the additional costs of transmitting the electricity. The only way to overcome
  this problem is through the use of superconducting wires, which require
  copious quantities of silver, a precious metal already in short supply.
  
  
  
  9. Virtually all
  solar panels currently on the market are made with silver paste. The world,
  however, is in the midst of a massive silver shortage that is likely to be
  greatly exacerbated in the years to come.
  
  
  
  Of all metals,
  silver is the best conductor of electricity. This has made it a crucial
  component of all computers, communications, and electrical equipment. As
  technology has spread, silver reserves have plummeted. The current shortage of
  silver is so severe many experts feel the price of silver will skyrocket from
  its August 2004 price of $6.50 per ounce to as high as $200 per ounce. 
  This will drive up the cost of solar power.
  
  
  
  To make matters
  worse, the only silver left is very difficult to extract and requires the use
  of heavy-duty, energy-intensive, oil-powered machinery. As oil becomes more
  expensive, so will the discovery, mining and transporting of silver, which
  will drive up the price of solar power even more.
  
  Furthermore, much
  of the world’s silver reserves are located in highly unstable and unfriendly
  parts of the world such as the former Soviet Union.
  
  
  
  10. Finally, as
  fossil fuels become increasingly scarce and expensive, we will have less
  energy to do everything, including obtaining replacement parts for things like
  solar panels. Even the most durable of solar panels, like all forms of
  technology, will require replacement parts and maintenance at some point in
  the future. Consequently, many of the solar panel systems in use today will
  likely be inoperable 40-50 years from now due to the collapse of oil-fueled
  manufacturing, transportation, maintenance, and distribution networks.
  
  
  
  Sources:
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
   By
  Richard Heinberg (P. 142-146)
By
  Richard Heinberg (P. 142-146)
  
 
  
  
   By
  Paul Roberts (P. 192-195)
By
  Paul Roberts (P. 192-195)
  
 
  
  
   By
  Theodore Butler
By
  Theodore Butler
  
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  ------------------
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  What about
  Water/Hydro-Electric power?
  
  
  
  Water, i.e.
  hydro-electric power through building dams, currently supplies 2.3 percent of
  global energy supply. It is a time-tested, reliable and clean form of
  electricity creation. As a replacement for oil, however, it is unsuitable due
  to the following reasons:
  
  
  
  1. It is unsuitable
  for aircrafts and the present 800 million existing vehicles.
  
  
  
  2. It cannot be
  used to produce pesticides, plastics, or petrochemicals.
  
  
  
  3. Most of the
  obvious dam sites in many parts of the world have already been erected. In
  other words, we can't really exploit it much more than we already are.
  
  
  
  Sources:
  
  
  
  
  
   By
  Richard Heinberg (P. 149-150)
By
  Richard Heinberg (P. 149-150)
  
 
  
  
  
  
  ------------------
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  What about wind
  power?
  
  
  
  Like solar, wind
  power accounts for about one-tenth of one percent of the current US energy
  supply.  As a replacement for oil, it is unsuitable due to the following
  reasons:
  
  
  
  1.  As with
  solar, energy from wind varies greatly with weather, and is not portable or
  storable like oil and gas.
  
  
  
  2. Wind cannot be
  used to produce pesticides, plastics, or petrochemicals.
  
  
  
  3. Like solar, wind
  is susceptible to the effects of global climate change.
  
  
  
  4.  Wind is
  not appropriate for transportation needs.
  
  
  
  Despite these
  limitations, wind power is one of the more promising alternatives to fossil
  fuels. According to a 1993 study done by the National Renewable Energy
  Laboratory, wind could generate about 15 percent of US energy, if heavy and
  immediate investments are made.  In order to supply just 15 percent of
  the current US energy supply, wind would need to be upscaled by 150,000
  percent.
  
  
  
  The fact that wind
  is one of our most promising alternatives is what makes our situation so
  disturbing. For instance, in order for wind to be used as hydrogen fuel, the
  following steps have to be taken:
  
  
  
  1. Build the wind
  farm. This step requires an enormous investment of oil and raw materials,
  which will become increasingly expensive as oil production drops.
  
  
  
  2. Wait for X
  number of years while the original energy investment is paid back.
  
  
  
  3.  Construct
  an infrastructure through which the wind energy can be
  
  converted to
  hydrogen. This requires an enormous investment of oil and raw materials, which
  will become increasingly expensive as oil production drops. As explained
  previously, the development of a hydrogen infrastructure has its own set of
  physically insurmountable obstacles.
  
  
  
  4. Retrofit our
  current infrastructure to run on this fuel. This requires an enormous
  investment of oil and raw materials, both of which will become increasingly
  expensive as oil production drops.
  
  
  
  5.  Deal with
  enormous political and industrial resistance at each step.
  
  6. Pray that we can
  repeat this process enough times before anarchy and war completely cripple our
  ability to do so.
  
  
  
  Sources:
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
   By
  Richard Heinberg (P. 139-142)
By
  Richard Heinberg (P. 139-142)
  
 
  
  
   By
  Paul Roberts (P. 196-202)
By
  Paul Roberts (P. 196-202)
  
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  -----------------
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  What about
  plant-based fuels like methanol and ethanol?
  
  
  
  Plant-based fuels
  will never be able to replace more than a fraction of the energy we currently
  get from oil for the following reasons:
  
  
  
  1. Depending on who
  you consult, ethanol has an EPR ranging from .7 (making it an energy loser) to
  1.7. Methanol, made from wood, clocks in at 2.6, better than ethanol, but
  still far short of oil.
  
  
  
  2. As explained
  previously, by 2050, the US will only have enough arable land to feed half of
  its population, not accounting for the effects of oil depletion. In the years
  to come, there won't be enough land for food, let alone fuel.
  
  
  
  3. It takes 11
  acres to grow enough corn to fuel one automobile with ethanol for 10,000
  miles, or about a year’s driving.  If we tried to replace just 10
  percent of the gasoline the U.S. will use in 2020 with corn-based ethanol, we
  would need to plant an area equivalent to Illinois, Indiana and Ohio solely to
  grow the grain needed as feedstock. The difficulty of that can be appreciated
  when you realize that this area is about one-sixth of the land we currently
  use in the United States for growing all our crops.
  
  
  
  4. Current
  infrastructure, particularly manufacturing and large-scale transportation, is
  adaptable to plant-based fuels in theory only. In reality, retrofitting our
  industrial and transportation systems to run on plant fuels would be
  enormously expensive and comically impractical.
  
  Finally, when
  evaluating claims about plant-based fuels, be aware of who is providing the
  data. The company which makes 60 percent of US ethanol is also one of the
  largest contributors of campaign money to the Congress. Were it not for
  subsidies provided by taxpayers, the continued production of ethanol would be
  severely jeopardized.
  
  
  
  Sources:
  
  
  
  
  
   By
  Richard Heinberg (P. 156)
By
  Richard Heinberg (P. 156)
  
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  -----------------
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  What about
  biodiesel?
  
  
  
  The good news is
  biodiesel may be the best alternative we have. That’s also the bad news.
  
  
  
  A diesel-powered
  machine can be adapted to run on biodiesel with relative ease. This does not
  mean, however, that biodiesel can provide us with enough affordable energy to
  do more than slightly soften the coming collapse. As with all the
  alternatives, the issue is not one of technical feasibility, but rather
  scalability.
  
  
  
  US biodiesel
  production currently has a ceiling of 100 million gallons per year. This is
  the equivalent of about 2.5 million barrels of oil, or the amount the US
  currently consumes in less than 3 hours.
  
  
  
  Although the
  ceiling is 100 million gallons (or about 2.5 million barrels), only 25 million
  gallons (or about 600,000 barrels) were actually produced last year. This was
  enough biodiesel to power the US economy for about 45 minutes.
  
  
  
  By 2020, US demand
  for oil may be pushing 30 million barrels of oil per day. Even if US biodiesel
  production is scaled up by 40,000 percent, it will not provide us with more
  than a week’s supply of fuel.
  
  
  
  Unfortunately, it
  is not physically possible to scale up biodiesel production enough to provide
  us with even this comparatively meager amount.
  
  
  
  Typically,
  biodiesel is typically produced from vegetables such as soybeans. This is
  problematic for two reasons:
  
  
  
  1. As explained
  previously, the US population will soon outstrip our ability to produce food.
  Within a few decades, we won’t have enough arable land on which to grow
  food, let alone fuel.
  
  
  
  2.  Given the
  petroleum-intensive nature of modern agriculture, the use of vegetable oil as
  fuel is typically an energy loser, although according to some studies, a
  positive EROEI might be achievable if certain plants are used.
  
  
  
  One proposal making
  the rounds on the Internet involves building 11,000 square feet of shallow
  concrete pools in which to grow biodiesel-producing algae. The amount of
  energy required by such a project is truly breathtaking. To pave 11,000 square
  miles with concrete four inches deep would require 3,785,955,556 cubic yards
  of concrete. This is enough concrete to build 25 cities the size of San
  Francisco.  To make matters worse, acquiring this amount of concrete
  would require massive investments in fossil fuel-powered construction and
  transportation. The plan is rife with numerous other problems of scalability
  such as the logistics of maintaining 11,000 square miles worth of plastic or
  glass roof sheeting.
  
  
  
  Keep in mind this
  mammoth project would have to be completed in the midst of ever-worsening oil
  shortages and rapidly deteriorating economic conditions.
  
  
  
  Amazingly, many
  intelligent people actually feel such a plan is a pragmatic solution to the
  coming oil shocks. This is a startling indicator of the degree to which many
  people are unable to appreciate to complex and mammoth relationship of oil to
  the world economy.
  
  As usual, however,
  most people don’t want to be bothered with facts. Consequently, you can
  expect to see more and more articles in the mainstream media about the wonders
  of biodiesel. The peasantry is easily duped by such puff pieces, as we
  desperately want to believe alternatives like biodiesel can allow us to
  continue business as usual.
  
  We’ve got 700
  million internal combustion engines on the road. The world uses 30 billion
  barrels of oil per year. By 2020, the world will need as much as 45 billion
  barrels of oil. Converting a few thousand, or even 50-60 million, vehicles to
  biodiesel is not going to stop the collapse of petrochemical civilization.
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  ----------------
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  What about Hemp?
  
  
  
  Everybody’s
  favorite biofuel suffers from the same limitations as other biofuels: lack of
  scalability, lack of arable land on which to grow enough of it, and a poor
  energy profit ratio.
  
  
  
  Even if hemp
  production could be scaled up to produce a fraction of the energy provided by
  fossil fuels, we would just be trading “Peak Hemp” for Peak Oil. What do
  you do when hemp production peaks?  Once it does, we’re back in the
  same situation we are now.
  
  
  
  In truth, the
  discussion of Peak Hemp is a moot point, as there is no way hemp production
  can be scaled up to provide more than a minuscule fraction of the energy
  provided by fossil-fuels. I mention Peak Hemp merely to illustrate a point
  discussed further in Part IV: so long as we have an economy that requires
  growth, it doesn’t matter what our primary energy source is, as production
  of all energy sources eventually peak and decline.
  
  
  
  Hemp, however, has
  many properties that would make it an almost ideal food crop for
  post-petroleum agriculture. Unfortunately, the likelihood of widespread
  legalization of hemp farming in the US is, at this time, practically zero.
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  ----------------
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  What about
  Thermal Depolymerization?
  
  
  
  Thermal
  Depolymerization (TD), which can turn many forms of waste into fuel, is
  another false messiah, albeit a fascinating one:
  
  
  
  1. Currently, only
  one TD plant is operational. The plant is currently producing a whopping
  100-200 barrels of industrial heating oil per day.  That’s enough to
  power the US economy for about half of one second and the world economy for
  about one-tenth of one second. 
  
  
  
  2. TD is really
  nothing more than high-tech recycling. Most of the waste input (such as
  plastics and tires) requires high-grade oil to make it in the first
  place.  As we slide down the downslope of oil production, we will have
  less waste to put into the process.
  
  3. According to the
  company itself, the TD process has an efficiency of 85 percent. You stick 100
  units of energy into the process to get out 85. This means TD has a negative
  net-energy profile. Thus, it’s not an energy source, folks!
  
  
  
  Simply physics
  dictates that TD will never have a positive or even break even net-energy
  profile. The process requires energy to turn garbage into oil. The 2nd Law of
  Thermodynamics states energy cannot be created or destroyed. Thus, the energy
  obtained from the TD process will be less than the energy used to create it.
  
  
  
  4. TD was “announced”
  in an article that ran in the July 2003 issue of Discover magazine. Virtually
  nothing has been written in the press since then. That should tell you
  something. Given the fact oil is pushing $50 per barrel as of mid-August 2004,
  if TD was as great as so many techno-worshippers think or hope it is, don’t
  you think we would have heard a bit more about by now?
  
  
  
  The biggest problem
  with TD is that it is being advertised as a means to maintain business as
  usual. Such advertising promotes further consumption, provides us with a
  dangerously false sense of security, and encourages us to continue thinking we
  don’t need to make this issue a priority.
  
  
  
  You may find it
  interesting that if a 175-pound man falls into one end of the TD machine, he
  comes out the other end as 7 pounds of gas, 7 pounds of minerals, 123 pounds
  of sterilized water, and 38 pounds of oil. 
  
  
  
  Sources:
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  ----------------
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  What about free
  energy? Didn't Nikola Tesla invent some machine that produced free energy?
  
  
  
  While free-energy
  technologies such as Cold Fusion, Vacuum Energy and Zero Point Energy are
  extremely fascinating, the unfortunate reality is that they are unlikely to
  help us cope with the oil depletion for several reasons:
  
  
  
  1. We currently get
  absolutely zero percent of our energy from these sources.
  
  
  
  2. We currently
  have no functional prototypes.
  
  
  
  3. We’ve already
  had our experiment with “free energy.” With an EPR of 30 to 1, oil was so
  efficient and cheap an energy source that it was practically free. In some
  locations, such as Louisiana, oil had an EPR of 100 to 1!
  
  
  
  4. The development
  of a “free energy” device would just put off the inevitable. The Earth has
  a carrying capacity. If we are able to substitute a significant portion of our
  fossil-fuel usage with “free energy,” the crash would just come at a later
  time, when we have depleted a different resource. At that point, our
  population will be even higher. The higher a population is, the further it has
  to fall when it depletes a key resource. The further it has to fall, the more
  momentum it picks up on the way down through war and disease. By encouraging
  continued population growth, so-called “free energy” could actually make
  our situation worse.
  
  
  
 
  An analogy may be
  useful here: I live in a one-bedroom apartment. Let’s pretend that tomorrow
  the energy fairy comes along and installs a free-energy device in my
  apartment. With the device running, I can use all the energy I want for free.
  Not only that, but it magically pays the rent and keeps the refrigerator full
  of food. Time for me to have all my friends move in with me?
  
  
  
  No, because my
  apartment still has only one bathroom. If 15-20 people move in with me, there’s
  going to be shit all over the living room, free-energy device running or not.
  
  
  
  5. Even if a
  functional free-energy prototype came into existence today, it would take at
  least 25-50 years to retrofit our multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure for
  such technology.
  
  
  
  6.  One can
  only wonder what damage we would do to ourselves if given access to free
  energy. We discovered oil, an amazingly powerful source of energy, and 150
  years later we are closer to destroying ourselves than ever before. What do
  you think we will do to ourselves if we gain access to an even more powerful
  source of energy?
  
  Another analogy may
  be useful here: say you give a young man access to a one-million-dollar bank
  account on his 18th birthday.  Do you think he is going to handle it
  responsibly? My guess is no. If he’s anything like I was at 18 (or even
  today), he’s going to blow it all on expensive liquor, wild strippers, and
  fast cars.
  
  
  
  In other words, he’s
  going to consume and screw himself into oblivion, which is exactly what the
  human race has been doing to itself since discovering oil.
  
  
  
  What do you think
  will happen if, upon depleting his one-million-dollar bank account, the young
  man gains access a bank account with one billion dollars in it? Most likely,
  he will continue consuming and screwing until he completely destroys himself
  and all those around him.
  
  
  
  We will likely do
  the same thing if we ever gain access to an energy source even more abundant
  and powerful than oil.
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  ----------------
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  What about using
  a variety of alternatives? If we use a little of this and a little of that,
  can’t it add up?
  
  
  
  Absolutely. 
  
  
  
  If we find a
  massive amount of political will, unprecedented bipartisan cooperation, gobs
  of investment capital, a slew of technological breakthroughs, and about 25-50
  years of peace and prosperity to implement the changes, we can do the
  following:
  
  
  
  1.  Scale up
  biodiesel production to provide 4-6 days worth of energy.
  
  2.  Scale up
  thermal depolymerization to provide 3-4 minutes of energy.
  
  3.  Scale up
  solar and wind to provide 2-3 weeks of energy.
  
  
  
  4. Scale up nuclear
  to provide 4-6 weeks of energy. (And pray for no accidents)
  
  
  
  It all ads up, and
  actually to a quite a bit: it may be possible to get the energy equivalent of
  3-4 billion barrels of oil from alternative sources. That is about as much oil
  as the entire world consumed per year prior to World War II! But it is only
  about 10 percent of what we need currently, and an even smaller percentage of
  what we will need in the future.
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  ----------------
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  Are these
  alternatives useless then?
  
  
  
  No, not at all.
  Whatever civilization emerges after the crash will likely derive a good deal
  of its energy from these alternatives. All of these alternatives deserve
  massive investment right now. The problem is no combination them can replace
  oil, no matter how much we wish they could. All the optimism, ingenuity, and
  desire in the world doesn’t change the physics and hard math of energy.
  
  
  
  None of the
  alternatives can supply us with enough energy to maintain even a modest
  fraction of our current consumption levels. Even in the best-case scenario, we
  will have to accept a drastically reduced standard of living. To survive, we
  will have to radically change the way we get our food, the way we get to work,
  what we do for work, the homes we live in, how we plan our families, and what
  we do for recreation.
  
  
  
  Put simply, a
  transition to these alternatives will require a complete overhaul of every
  aspect of modern industrial society. Unfortunately, complex societies such as ours do not undertake radical changes
  voluntarily or preemptively.  Nor do they attempt to solve their problems
  by simplifying or downsizing things. Instead, complex societies tend to
  gravitate towards increasingly complex solutions, which ultimately make the
  original problems much worse.
  Unfortunately, complex societies such as ours do not undertake radical changes
  voluntarily or preemptively.  Nor do they attempt to solve their problems
  by simplifying or downsizing things. Instead, complex societies tend to
  gravitate towards increasingly complex solutions, which ultimately make the
  original problems much worse.
  
 
  
  
  The fact that
  alternative energies are incapable of replacing fossil fuels seems to be an
  extremely tough pill to swallow for almost everybody except physicists and
  engineers. In my experience, everybody else insists that with enough political
  will, ingenuity, and elbow grease, we can somehow make the transition to
  alternative fuels.
  
  
  
  I’m sorry, folks,
  but we can’t. Without mammoth amounts of fossil fuels, there is simply no
  way we can run a society that even comes close to resembling what we are
  accustomed to for more than a handful of (super-rich) people. The physics of
  renewable energy are absolutely pathetic compared to the physics of fossil
  fuels! The numbers just don’t add up, no matter how much we wish they would.
  
  
  
  If you’re
  thinking of sending me an email telling me to “go to hell” because you’re
  positive that, with enough “American ingenuity,” alternative energies can
  take the place of fossil fuels, don’t bother. Filling my inbox with
  hate-filled vitriol is not going to change the laws of thermodynamics.
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  -----------------
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  Fine, but what
  if space aliens or angels come down and give us a miraculous alternative
  source of energy that easily replaces oil and can supply a constantly
  increasing amount of energy? Wouldn’t that prevent a collapse?
  
  
  
  Not for those of us
  living in the US or for anybody who attempts to make use of this new energy
  source.
  
  
  
  The US dollar is
  the reserve currency for all oil transactions in the world, hence the term “petrodollar.”
  In short, this means that whenever anybody buys oil, anywhere in the world,
  they have to pay with dollars. Thus, the wealth from all oil transactions
  cycles into the US economy. The strength of the US economy is now entirely
  dependant on the strength of the petrodollar as the US manufacturing and
  industrial base has been dismantled and shipped to China, India, Mexico, and
  the Philippines. The petrodollar is one of the few things we have left with
  which to support our economy.
  
  
  
  If such an
  alternative source of energy came online, oil purchases would drop, the
  petrodollar would collapse, and the US would descend into economic anarchy.
  The US would react (probably preemptively) to the widespread implementation of
  this alternative by plunging the world into a series of wars unlike anything
  we have ever imagined.
  
  
  
  The US is truly
  wedded to oil, with no possibility of an annulment or divorce. As they say:
  “till death do us part.”
  
  
  
  A full blown
  collapse of petrochemical civilization is coming. There is no way to stop it.
  There are no alternatives that will do more than slightly ameliorate it. The
  best we can do is prepare and adapt to it.
   
   
  Copyright 2004,
  Matt Savinar: All Rights Reserved