Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2005 Jul 19 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2005 IA.

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible solar disk remains spotless. No significant activity was observed during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated active levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has steadily decreased from slightly elevated levels at the beginning of the period, ending the period at background levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Isolated major to severe storming conditions are possible on 20 July due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. A decrease to predominantly active conditions can be expected on 21 July, followed by unsettled levels on 22 July.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 071
Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 19 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 019/034
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 020/030-015/020-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/20
Minor storm 20/15/05
Major-severe storm 10/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/35/30
Minor storm 35/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/05