Rosy petrochem forecast to derail if China growth disappoints

Rosy petrochem forecast to derail if China growth disappoints: APIC

Yokohama (Platts)--2Jun2005


The forecast for the coming ten years that the steady boost in petrochemicals
capacity in the Middle East will be easily absorbed by China will be derailed
if Chinese economic growth rates disappoint, said Sidney Chow, chairman of the
Petrochemical Industry Association of Taiwan. Chow was speaking at the plenary
meeting of the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2005 on May 20. 

The expansion projects in the Middle East are most likely to go on as planned,
therefore the supply side will remain unchanged as anticipated, he said.
However, most petrochemical demand scenarios are based on the assumption that
China's economy will grow in the coming ten years by 7% on average, some even
predict growth rates of between 8 to 10%, he said. 

This is a critical assumption, he said, as a lower-than-anticipated economic
growth in China will shift the balance for petrochemicals, and a slight shift
in balance will cause prices to drop and margins to disappear, he added. 

This story was originally published in Platts Petrochemical Report
http://petrochemicalreport.platts.com

Please visit: www.platts.com

Their coverage of energy matters is extensive!!.