Silicon shortage to slow solar surge

BRUSSELS, Belgium, June 1, 2005 (Refocus Weekly)

The temporary shortage of silicon will prevent the solar industry from growing at recent annual rates of 40%, says the European Photovoltaic Industry Association.

The record rate of growth of the PV market was 40% a year between 1997 and 2004 and, although demand for PV products is growing, the lack of that important raw material will limit growth to 20% this year and a slight growth increase in 2006. These two years will be “a period of adjustment for the industry, leading to consolidation of companies within the value chain,” while 2007 will “start to come back to the impressive growth rates the photovoltaic sector has continuously been witnessing since 1997.”

The global market for PV surpassed 1 GW last year and, although there are no confirmed figures for the European market, growth was impressive with Germany doubling its growth and a 50% increase in Italy, estimates EPIA.

“We are expecting within the years to come still, a considerable market growth and all actors within the value chain must prepare the supply,” says association president Winfried Hoffmann. “The chemical industry has decided to start increasing production capacities at the end of 2004, in order to provide the raw material necessary to produce silicon cells; however, these new capacities will not be available before 12 to 18 months.”

The production capacities for PV cells and modules has been doubled and, in some places, tripled in the last year, and EPIA estimates that half of the market growth over the next two years will still be supplied by silicon-based PV modules, with the other half benefiting from thin-film technology. The industry considers this an opportunity for greater technological development, such as an increased thin-film module production or the reduction of the silicon wafers thickness to lower the cost of cells by optimizing raw materials.

The return to high growth rates for the PV industry in 2007 will be the result of new silicon production capacities coming on stream.

EPIA represents 95% of the PV industry in Europe.

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