World LNG market set for unprecedented growth: Poten

Darwin (Platts)--7Jun2005

Global LNG demand is set for unprecedented growth over the next five years,
rising by 119-mil mt to 265-mil mt/year in 2010, according to forecasts by
energy consultant Poten & Partners' Daryl Houghton. While supply was expected
to keep up with demand, global LNG prices would have to rise, Houghton told
the South East Asia Australia Offshore conference in Darwin Tuesday. The LNG
market was also undergoing a transformation that would see the Atlantic basin
replace Asia Pacific as the world's largest consuming region, he noted. The
Atlantic basin's share of world consumption was forecast to undergo a
"dramatic" rise from 30% of the total in 2000 to around 50% in 2015, when
global demand is expected to top 350-mil mt/year, Houghton said. Most of this
growth would be in North America where demand in 2005 is forecast at 15-mil
mt/year, or 28% of the total Atlantic basin market of around 53-mil mt/year.
But North American demand would rise to 76-mil mt/year in 2015 to account for
46% of a 165-mil mt/year total Atlantic basin market in 2015.

The UK, which is about to receive its first LNG shipment, is also an emerging
market and likely to host three import terminals totaling about 20-mil mt/year
by 2015. In Asia Pacific, demand would be driven by new markets such as India,
China and the US West Coast, which would account for 62-mil mt/year, or 33% of
the region's total demand by 2015, Houghton predicted. Poten expects LNG
supply to match the burgeoning demand, with Bolivia, Peru, Venezuela, Angola,
Equatorial Guinea, Mauritania, Iran, Yemen, Norway and Russia all planning to
join the ranks of the 13 countries already producing. In Asia Pacific, around
32-mil mt/year of LNG capacity is expected to come onstream between now and
2009, but the region would still be facing a supply shortfall of 70-mil
mt/year in 2015, Houghton said. The new Asia Pacific supply would come largely
from Australia and Iran, which are expected to up capacity by 39-mil mt/year
and 14-mil mt/year respectively. But the focus of Middle East suppliers would
turn away from Asia Pacific to the Atlantic basin, Houghton noted.

The UK, which is about to receive its first LNG shipment, is also an emerging
market and likely to host three import terminals totaling about 20-mil mt/year
by 2015. In Asia Pacific, demand would be driven by new markets such as India,
China and the US West Coast, which would account for 62-mil mt/year, or 33% of
the region's total demand by 2015, Houghton predicted. Poten expects LNG
supply to match the burgeoning demand, with Bolivia, Peru, Venezuela, Angola,
Equatorial Guinea, Mauritania, Iran, Yemen, Norway and Russia all planning to
join the ranks of the 13 countries already producing. In Asia Pacific, around
32-mil mt/year of LNG capacity is expected to come onstream between now and
2009, but the region would still be facing a supply shortfall of 70-mil
mt/year in 2015, Houghton said. The new Asia Pacific supply would come largely
from Australia and Iran, which are expected to up capacity by 39-mil mt/year
and 14-mil mt/year respectively. But the focus of Middle East suppliers would
turn away from Asia Pacific to the Atlantic basin, Houghton noted.

This story was first published in Platts real-time news and market reporting
service Global Alert - http://www.globalalert.platts.com

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