Building Owners, Farmers May Feel Energy Pinch
May 16 - San Diego Business Journal
Blackouts aren't expected this summer, but some big energy users are preparing just in case.
Larson is counting on San Diego Gas & Electric Co. to get the word out as
soon as possible if a severe crunch hits this summer.
Greenhouse operators, which number almost 900 countywide, might have the
hardest time conserving during peak hours because of the nature of their
business, Larson said.
Otherwise, "if there are voluntary calls for cutbacks, I think farmers
will be able to assist in that and switch hours," he said.
An ongoing problem for big energy users is that "California continues to
suffer from chronic under-generation of electricity," Larson said.
Craig Benedetto, legislative director for the San Diego Building Owners &
Managers Association, agrees.
"Many of our building owners are putting in their own cogeneration
facilities, upgrading lighting and heating and cooling systems, putting in
reflective roofs," he said, adding that some had conservation measures in
place before the 2000-01 energy crisis hit.
"A lot of them have invested millions in energy conservation, and we
feel we've done our share, but we need an adequate production to meet
demand," he said. "You can't conserve your way out of this problem.
The key is to meet demand. You heard a lot of talk in 2001, and you saw a lot of
new proposals afloat for new energy creation, new power plants, but they didn't
materialize."
The California Independent System Operator issued its 2005 summer operations
assessment last week.
"We are not predicting blackouts," said Stephanie McCorkle, an ISO
spokeswoman. "But will conservation help us? You bet."
A nonprofit corporation that manages the power lines for the state's
investor-owned utilities, the ISO issued its summer energy assessment based on
two scenarios: a "1 in 2" summer, considered the most typical, seen
about 50 percent of the time; and a "1 in 10" summer, which is
unusually hot, and likely to occur in California only about 10 percent of the
time, according to McCorkle.
For the worst-case, perfect-storm scenario, the ISO assumes that an
additional 2,500 megawatts of energy that would be needed would not be
available. Consider that I megawatt is enough energy to power 750 average
California homes. Among the possible reasons: a Western regional heat wave and
subsequently lower import levels, increased forced outages, lower
hydro-generation available, due to the hot days, retirements of older
generators, and delays in opening new facilities.
For a typical summer, however, the ISO predicts adequate capacity to meet
demand, but thin margins could develop in Southern California if adverse
conditions occur. In other words, "it will be tight," said Stephanie
Donovan, a spokeswoman for the San Diego Gas & Electric Co.
Consequently, "Renewed and aggressive conservation efforts will be
critical for California to avoid potential resource shortages," cautioned
the ISO report.
"The ISO's worst-case scenario definitely makes businesses a little more
exposed than they were last summer," said Michael Shames, the executive
director of the Utility Consumers' Action Network, a San Diego-based consumer
watchdog. "The electricity road to San Diego remains a somewhat bumpy ride,
but I'm not expecting any major blowouts."
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