California has potential for 17 million MW of solar capacity
SACRAMENTO, California, US, May 25, 2005 (Refocus Weekly)
The state of California has the technical potential to install 16,822,184 MW of solar PV, according to a white paper from the California Energy Commission.
That capacity in 29 counties could generate 100,139,176 MWh of green power a
year, estimates the draft ‘California Solar Resources in Support of the 2005
Integrated Energy Policy Report.’
“California has enormous, although largely untapped solar resources,” with
current capacity of 350 MW of concentrating solar power facilities and 100 MW of
solar PV. While analyses of solar resources show that “PV can be deployed
beneficially almost anywhere in California,” while CSP facilities require
higher concentrations of solar resources and are more suited to the southeastern
part of the state.
“Ignoring economic constraints, the technical potential for PV in California
exceeds 17 million MW of capacity. If applied to existing residential and
commercial rooftops, the technical PV potential exceeds 74,000 MW of capacity.
If CSP facilities are deployed only in those areas where the annual average
direct-normal insolation exceeds 6 kWh per day per square meter, the CSP
technical potential exceeds 1,000 MW of capacity,” it concludes.
Renewables currently generate 11% of the state’s electricity, and the
Renewable Portfolio Standard established in 2002 requires power suppliers to
procure at least 1% of their electricity from green power resources in a goal of
achieving a 20% renewable mix by 2017. The state Energy Commission, Public
Utilities Commission and Power Authority recently approved the Energy Action
Plan to accelerate that 20% target date to 2010.
The white paper is designed to estimate the solar resources within the state
which could be used to meet the RPS and EAP goals, and updates the resource
information contained in the 2003 Renewable Resources Development Report.
California’s new home market is growing at 200,000 homes per year and
building-integrated PV “has the potential to significantly increase the market
growth of PV systems in California,” and the installation of 2.5 kW BIPV
systems on 2% of new homes would result in a first year growth of 10 MW of new
PV capacity. If the percentage of new homes with BIPV systems increased to 10%,
the contribution of electricity at the end the first decade would be 400 MW of
generating capacity, and a 50% level would mean the total electricity
contribution from PV could be 1,800 MW by 2017.
“The technical potential associated with developing PV for central station
applications and on residential and commercial rooftops exceeds 17 million MW of
capacity,” the report notes. “If PV is developed in the nearer term only as
residential and commercial rooftop systems, the technical potential is still in
excess of 75,000 MW of capacity. While not treated in this white paper, the
actual amount of PV to be developed in California will be largely determined by
economics and the special benefits that PV systems may provide to
communities.”
Unlike PV, CSP systems can use only direct normal insolation to generate
electricity, and the technical potential assumes that level locations with clear
and high solar resources are the most technically appropriate location. The
report examined only locations with above-average solar radiation of 6 kWh per
day per m2 and no more than 1% slope, and also excluded urban areas, forests,
water, roads and any sensitive areas and parks. Of the 16 counties which meet
those parameters, the state-wide CSP technical potential is 1,000 MW of capacity
which could generate 2,717,544,893 MWh of green power.
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