Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 May 05 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

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Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past 24 hours was a C7/Sf at 05/2020 UTC in Region 756 (S09W65). This region continues to decay. Region 758 (S06E37) also produced a number of small B and C-class flares and is growing slowly and becoming more magnetically complex.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with predominately B and C-class activity in Regions 756 and 758.

There is a chance of a small M-class flare in either of these regions, as well.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May

Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse

Observed: 2005 May 06 1306 UTC

 

Class M 20/20/20

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 05 May 109

Predicted 06 May-08 May 105/105/100

90 Day Mean 05 May 092

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 004/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 005/010-005/005-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01