Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 May 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
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Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past 24 hours was a C7/Sf at 05/2020 UTC in Region 756 (S09W65). This region continues to decay. Region 758 (S06E37) also produced a number of small B and C-class flares and is growing slowly and becoming more magnetically complex.IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with predominately B and C-class activity in Regions 756 and 758.There is a chance of a small M-class flare in either of these
regions, as well.IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.III. Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2005 May 06 1306 UTC
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 109
Predicted 06 May-08 May 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 05 May 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 005/010-005/005-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01