Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Oct 31 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity continued at very low levels. A B8 flare was observed at 31/1643Z from near S03 on the east limb. This area of bright emission on the southeast limb is likely the return of old Region 814 (S08, L=228). A new bipolar sunspot group was numbered today as Region 819 (S09E26). This spot group emerged in close proximity to Region 818 (S08E32), which is also a small beta group in a slow growth phase.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from the tightly grouped Regions 818 and 819. A C-class flare is also possible from old active Region 814, which is rotating into view on the southeast limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The most disturbed conditions were associated with a period of sustained southward IMF Bz that began at around 31/0900Z and persisted through the remainder of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 03 November.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 078
Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 31 Oct 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 008/010-005/005-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/25
Minor storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/05