Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Nov 01 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 818

(S08E19) and 819 (S09E12) have not changed much over the past 24 hours, and maintain a relatively simple beta magnetic configuration.

A large plage field associated with old Region 814 (S8, L=228) has rotated into view on the southeast limb, but no sunspots are visible.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active conditions occurred early in the period following an extended episode of southward IMF Bz. Solar wind speed remained below 400 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on 02 and 03 November. Isolated minor storm periods are possible on 04 November as a large recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 01 Nov 077

Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 01 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 006/013

Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 008/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 005/008-010/012-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/20/30

Minor storm 05/10/15

Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/25/35

Minor storm 10/15/20

Major-severe storm 05/05/10